Time to get serious

IT’S 25 years since Ireland entered the RBS Six Nations as reigning champions, and all of 62 years since they defended a Grand Slam.

The question now is, can Ireland build from the success of last year, or will they go the same way as Wales, who struggled in the season after their Grand Slam triumphs of 2005 and 2008?

The omens for Ireland are positive, in that historically they have followed up initial success in the old Five Nations with quality performances; for example, the 1948 Grand Slam was succeeded by a Triple Crown and championship in 1949, and another outright win in 1950. The 1982 Triple Crown and championship side followed up with a share of the championship with France in 1983. A further Triple Crown and championship was delivered in 1985, albeit with a much-changed team.

As with every Six Nations tournament, it is all about building momentum. The modern competition is played in three blocks and the opening phase of two games normally decides one’s fate in the overall table. This time around Ireland, with a favourable opening game at home against a struggling Italian side, should at least enter the key assignment of the entire campaign against France in the Stade de France seven days later on a positive note. Win that, and back-to-back championships become a real possibility.

While Ireland are in rude health on the injury front with hooker the only position of real concern – given the travails of Jerry Flannery and Rory Best – France are once again forced into a reshuffle because of injuries to a number of players. Key amongst those is their outstanding young loosehead prop Fabien Barcella, and scrum-half Dimitri Yachvili who looked poised for a recall. Declan Kidney will be pleased that the Irish front row will not be subjected to Barcella’s destructive brand of scrummaging.

If France ever get their player management programme right, then everyone else is vying for runner-up. They continually flog their players to death in domestic competition with the result that they never manage to field anything like their strongest side.

Indiscipline is also a problem. Marc Lievremont must be seething that having finally settled on a new scrum-half and place-kicker in Julien Dupuy, he rules himself out of the equation with a 23-week suspension for eye gouging. The recall of Bourgoin out-half Benjamin Boyet from the international wilderness also smacks of panic even if he looks set to continue with Montpellier’s Francois Trinh-Duc as his first choice.

This championship will also be a huge test of the management skills of Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards as they try to replicate Wales’s championship success of two seasons ago after only three months at the helm. The Welsh have some of the best individual talent in the tournament as we saw on the Lions tour with stellar talents such as Jamie Roberts, Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips, Stephen Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones and Alun Wyn Jones. Yet only one Welsh side has managed to make the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup.

England, and in particular manager Martin Johnson, are under a lot of pressure to prove that they are worthy contenders after finishing a rather flattering runners-up on points difference last year. They ran Ireland closest, losing by a single point in Dublin but seem incapable of creating anything through an average looking backline. The return from injury of Riki Flutey will be a boost and much could depend on who is chosen in the pivotal out-half role, Jonny Wilkinson or Toby Flood.

Wilkinson is in smashing form for Toulon but failed to reproduce anything like that form last November in England colours. Flood has impressed for Leicester Tigers since his return from injury. Johnson has a big call to make.

The fact that former England boss Andy Robinson takes charge of Scotland for the first time in the championship will add further interest to their campaign especially when his beloved England come calling at Murrayfield next month.

Robinson has started well in his new role, and but for a late penalty against Argentina would have recorded three wins in the autumn. Their victory over Australia was based on brute force and a belligerent defence that refused to yield in the face of unrelenting pressure. They will relish the prospect of taking the French on at home in their opening game and a shock could be on the cards.

Robinson, however, is bedevilled with the same problems as his immediate predecessors, Frank Hadden and Matt Williams, in that Scotland lack any spark of creativity behind the scrum and thus find it very difficult to score tries.

Nick Mallett must have walked away from Munster’s recent clash with Italy’s top club side Benetton Treviso and wondered just how he will have any chance of competing with Ireland in his opening game. Several members of his national squad were dismantled by a clinical Munster performance and the manner in which some of his front-line forwards were dominated must be a worry.

In the autumn, Italy were thrown in at the deep end but competed well against the might of New Zealand and South Africa.

As always their scrum created all kinds of problems, but it was after they had won possession that the magnitude of their problems were exposed. The half-backs are very poor, and once the tempo of the game increases their defensive structure evaporates.

Italy have had a torrid time of it in this tournament of late and the loss of their talismanic captain and the world’s leading number eight Sergio Parisse to a serious knee injury was just about the worst news that Mallett could have received.

With just two home games in this year’s cycle, they are odds on for another whitewash.