Three tactical challenges Ireland must master in the Six Nations
1 Front five must survive early scrutiny
As always, the ability of the team to function as a collective comes down to the capacity of the front five to deliver a quality platform. Without it, the back row is on the back foot from the outset, and the half-backs will struggle to impose themselves.
Warren Gatland looked at an Irish front five shorn key performers in Mike Ross, Cian Healy, Iain Henderson, and the retired Paul O’Connell, and saw opportunity. If Wales have an achilles heel, then their scrum has been a problem for some time. Injury hasn’t helped on that front but Gatland had enough coaching savvy to minimise the damage done at the World Cup, despite having to field a relatively unknown at tight head prop in Thomas Francis.
Their big hope for the future, Samson Lee, is now fully recovered from injury and starts at tight head but his presence won’t unduly worry Jack McGrath. Nathan White starts a Six Nations game for the first time and should be able to hold up his end of the scrum against another novice in Rob Evans.
That selection has been influenced by the fact that Jerome Garces is referee.
Garces has a tendency to play on on collapsed scrums, and Wales seize that to limit the damage, often collapsing deliberately. If Ireland can initiate an early drive, however, Garces will reward them.
With Healy, Ross, and Moore all missing from the championship-winning squads of the last two seasons, Ireland’s front row resources are being stretched. That said, James Cronin is deserving of his chance off the bench.
With O’Connell leading the way, Ireland have enjoyed the more productive lineout in this fixture for years. It got to the point where Wales refused to kick to touch against Ireland in order to deny them any attacking opportunities. Ireland mauled Wales off the park from lineouts two years ago in Dublin and that only added to their paranoia out of touch in the clashes that followed.
With only three survivors from the Irish pack of two years ago, that nervousness within Welsh ranks may have reduced. Ireland’s maul was poor at the World Cup and with Alun Wyn-Jones in the form of his life, and Luke Charteris excelling with Racing 92, Wales will feel their front five have the resources to do a number on Ireland up front.
If that happens, with the power Wales have in midfield and their quest for gain line dominance, Ireland will be in trouble.
In the circumstances, Joe Schmidt may settle for achieving set-piece parity in this one. Anything better will prove a huge psychological boost and dent Welsh prospects.
2 Battle for gain line dominance crucial
Wales play a very simple brand of rugby based on power and physicality in the contact area.
There is a distinct playing pattern based on the sheer size of the back line.
They carry hard over the gain line, recycle with pace and precision through several phases and look to stretch defences across the field. Then, after manufacturing mismatches, with backs running against front row forwards out of their comfort zone in exposed midfield positions, they look to strike.
It is simple but highly effective. That said, it rarely works against the southern hemisphere sides as they have the power to match Wales in the collisions. Against Australia in the World Cup, when the Wallabies were reduced to 13 men for eight minutes, Wales lacked the subtlety across the back line to take advantage out wide.
The message for Joe Schmidt is clear. Wales are totally reliant on winning the battle for the gain line and powering their way through teams. Stop them developing any forward momentum, knock them back on the advantage line and they become a blunt force. That is one of the many reasons why Sean O’Brien will prove a monumental loss tomorrow and places added pressure on CJ Stander on his international debut. To enable this to happen now requires a huge work rate and a gamble in committing a few more numbers to the breakdown.
Ireland will need to be more accurate in their kicking game as Wales compete better than most in those aerial one on ones. With Leigh Halfpenny still out injured and Liam Williams not yet match fit, Gatland has been forced into change in his back three.
Wales excelled last season in coping with Ireland’s aerial threat but with Gareth Anscombe starting a Six Nations game for the first time, and Tom James recalled after five years in the wilderness, the Welsh ability to cope with the aerial bombardment may be compromised. Anscombe, for one, can expect a real grilling from the boot of Johnny Sexton.
3 Defensive flexibility required
It seems a bit churlish to identify Ireland’s defensive organisation as needing adjustment given that it was the bedrock of championship successes in 2014 and 2015, when conceding a paltry four and three tries respectively.
Yet when Rob Howley and Shaun Edwards set out their plan for attack for this game, they will have noted the space that Ireland’s defensive structure affords them out wide. Not every side has the skill set to exploit those opportunities but Argentina managed it, and that will entice others to do likewise.
The basic problem here is that Ireland use a slight variation on a drift defence — it is more up and out — where Wales under Edwards have specialised in the blitz for some time now. The Welsh system is more confrontational and tends to prevent the opposition from building their phase play.
Ireland’s system has served Schmidt very well in the last two championship seasons but, as with all systems, it has its chinks. Problem is it forces Ireland to defend narrow and leaves space out wide if the initial line has been breached.
Argentina recognised that and their ability to carry forcibly through the forwards and recycle quickly exposed Ireland’s defensive vulnerability in the five-metre channels. Gatland will feel that Wales have the armoury in midfield and in the back row to carry as effectively and will target the same areas exploited so successfully by Argentina.
Schmidt is more than aware of this and given that he has taken temporary charge of Ireland’s defensive patterns until Andy Farrell comes on board after this tournament, he will be keen to shut the door on the areas exposed at the World Cup.
The issue with all defensive systems is that players must react and readjust in the heat of battle to what the opposition is throwing at them. Brian O’Driscoll was brilliant on that front and acted as a defence coach in the heat of battle.
That responsibility now sits with Jared Payne but he hasn’t started at No 13 since the second pool game of the World Cup against Romania.
With O’Brien and Rob Kearney added to Ireland’s ever-growing injury list, Wales carry all the advantages.
If Schmidt delivers a victory out of this one, it will rank as one of his best achievements since first taking the Ireland job.
