There may be trouble ahead
The sight of the Triple Crown being packed away in Croke Park without a formal presentation offered a sobering reminder to the Munster and Leinster contingent on the eve of the European quarter-finals that if the Heineken Cup is to remain in Ireland for a third successive season, then both teams must recapture their very best form as quickly as possible.
The main assault is set to come from France where the possibility of a “home” final in Paris seems to have provided the additional incentive for the French effort this season. With the national side also landing a first Grand Slam since 2004, they are now savouring the feelgood factor that seemed to inspire an Irish success in Europe last season.
Right now a very favourable draw means that Biarritz, Toulouse or Stade Francais could capture the trophy without having to travel outside of France. That will sit well with them. Indeed should Clermont-Auvergne manage to down the colours of holders Leinster in Dublin tonight then they too would be confined to domestic travel for a semi-final and potential final appearance.
England’s sole representative, Northampton Saints, will fancy their chances given the fact that they have beaten their quarter-final opponents Munster in the tournament already this season and have experienced the rarified atmosphere of Heineken Cup rugby in Thomond Park when they pushed Paul O’Connell’s men all the way last January.
Since then they have won silverware by capturing the LV= Anglo Welsh Cup and also look set to make the semi-finals of the Guinness Premiership. In addition, since their last trip to Limerick, Ben Foden, Courtney Lawes and Chris Ashton have all made their Six Nations debut for England and are in a rich vein of form at present.
That leaves us with the only Welsh side in the quarter-finals – the Ospreys.
Ah yes, the Ospreys. No side has flattered to deceive quite as spectacularly in Europe over the last few seasons as this multi-talented but flawed Welsh outfit. With so many players common to both sides it is no coincidence that they are a mirror image of the national side, brilliant in flashes, creative and exciting to watch, yet lacking in the basic fundamentals of the game.
Discipline is also an issue. Yet any side with Tommy Bowe, Shane Williams and Lee Byrne in the back three deserve respect as they have the ability to carve you up from anywhere. Surely the painful memory of their last two quarter-final appearances against Saracens and Munster where they surrendered without a fight should help focus the mind for what promises to be a very challenging visit to San Sebastian to play Biarritz tomorrow.
The quarter-finals could not get a better launch pad than the opening affair at the RDS this evening in what could well be the tie of the last eight. Despite playing away from home, Clermont have the capacity to win the tournament outright and should they triumph tonight, will prove very difficult to beat. If both sides come to play, then the array of talent behind the scrum would grace any rugby arena, anywhere in the world. Leinster, with Rob Kearney, Isa Nacewa, Brian O’Driscoll – providing he is fit – and Gordon D’Arcy, are in for a battle royal against the Julien Malzieu, Napolioni Nalaga, Aurelien Rougerie and Benoit Baby.
For the purists the real contest will take place up front where two bruising packs are set to go hell for leather for each other. In many respects this Clermont pack, an amalgam of the best France and Argentina have to offer, is even stronger than the one that Ireland recently faced in the Stade de France. Cian Healy will have learned a lot from that outing and will be asked to put those lessons to the test. Much will depend on whether Leinster’s recently injured quartet of O’Driscoll, D’Arcy, Shane Horgan and second row colossus Nathan Hines are all fully recovered. If they are then Leinster should prevail but if they are off the pace, don’t discount the possibility that the holders could be out of the tournament by tonight.
MUNSTER will also have their work cut out to make sure that Northampton don’t do a Leicester on it and become only the second side to experience that winning feeling in a Heineken Cup game in Thomond Park. Make no mistake they are perfectly capable of spoiling the party. One only has to think back to their last visit in January and the damage their pack inflicted on Munster’s much vaunted and experienced unit. Quite how Munster survived those series of scrums on the line with Paul O’Connell in the sin bin, Donncha O’Callaghan off injured and Doug Howlett in blissful ignorance in the back row, is still a bit of a mystery. One imagines that if Northampton find themselves in a similar position again they will not be as charitable. It is also unlikely that Shane Geraghty will be as bad again when he seemed in two minds whether to kick or run.
Northampton also adopted a limited game plan knowing that a losing bonus point would be sufficient to see them into the quarter-final. This game will be an entirely different affair as we enter the sphere of knockout cup rugby, something most of the Munster players have been raised on. Experience is everything at this stage and that is the one area where Paul O’Connell’s side leave the Saints in their wake.
Their recent disappointments with Ireland and the poor showing of the forwards in the set piece is sure to resonate with the Munster contingent who featured in the Six Nations and who are in search of atonement. Munster just cannot afford to play second fiddle up front if they want to win this one and must rediscover the controlled fury that has been responsible for winning so many tight games at this stage of the tournament in the past. Without it they will be in serious trouble.
If the Heineken Cup is to stay in Ireland for another year, then either Munster or Leinster will have to do it the hard way as both would face very challenging semi finals away from home.
At this juncture they would gratefully accept that challenge as to win it again would, I believe, be a greater achievement to what was accomplished in 2008 and 2009. The prospect of both appearing in an all-Irish final in Paris next month would provide the perfect antidote to that empty feeling that accompanied the dramatic reversal in Croke Park a few weeks ago.
Once again it is up to the provinces to lift the mood of the country.
