Six Nations will be decided at 10
Despite the monumental changes rugby has been through over the last 20 years, the Six Nations Championship still attracts an allure all of its own.
The unique colour and atmosphere that attaches to every game, spread across six great European cities, make it unrivalled in international terms and remains the envy of our southern hemisphere counterparts. Tradition and history still counts for a lot in this game.
Each championship takes on a life of its own with this year’s event even more significant as teams build momentum towards next September and the World Cup.
Try as he might at last week’s tournament launch in London, Joe Schmidt, for all his wizardry, was unable to convince any of the attending press that Ireland shouldn’t be billed as tournament favourites. England’s growing injury list has seen to that.
You have to go back 66 years to discover a time when Ireland last successfully defended their championship crown and that was in the old five nations format. The closest since then was a shared championship with France in 1983, having won it outright the year previous. No pressure then, Joe.
Problem is the level of expectation this time out has been self-imposed on the back of a very impressive November campaign featuring highly credible wins over South Africa and Australia. Ireland are on everybody’s radar coming into this tournament and that carries its own challenges.
I can’t remember a championship that promises to be as closely contested as this one. All six teams can point to reasons to be happy with their respective performances in the recent autumn series with Scotland appearing to make most progress under new coach Vern Cotter.
Ireland start with a distinct advantage in hosting both England and France in Dublin. In fact if you sat down with a blank sheet of paper, it would be difficult to come up with a more accommodating sequence of fixtures. That however is predicated on beating the French in round two.
Win that, and Ireland will be in a very strong position, on the assumption that we open the campaign with a win in Rome.
Lose to the French and the championship becomes a lot more challenging, on the basis that I expect England to put up a fierce challenge when they arrive at the Aviva Stadium in round three.
Lest we forget, England have beaten Ireland in the last four meetings.
The most fascinating aspect of this years championship for me is the number of countries parading fresh talent in the key No 10 jersey with Scotland, England, Italy and France all likely to place their trust in an out-half who has never started a Six Nations game. Ireland will be forced to do likewise, for the opening game at least, with Johnny Sexton forced to sit out the Italian game.
In Sexton and Conor Murray, Ireland have the best half-back partnership in the tournament. To retain the championship, Schmidt will be anxious to reunite that pairing as soon as possible.
The big question is whether he can afford to pick Sexton against France on the back of no game time since the Australian game over three months ago.
Much will depend on how whoever he picks for Saturday, Ian Madigan or Ian Keatley, performs in Rome. Either way, you suspect Schmidt wants Sexton back at the tiller as soon as possible and will throw him in at the deep end against the French.
Elsewhere Camille Lopez (France), George Ford (England), Finn Russell (Scotland) and Kelly Haimona (Italy) are all expected to be entrusted with directing operations from out-half in the clear knowledge that the fortunes of their respective countries will be dependent on how big a controlling influence they manage to exert on proceedings.
Lopez looks to the manor born and is exactly what the French need right now. He varies his game magnificently and always looks to have time on the ball.
France have badly lacked direction at half-back for some time and he looks like the man to finally solve that issue. His tactical kicking game is superb, he is an accomplished place kicker and also appreciates when it is on to go wide.
With him in the van, the likelihood is that his gifted Clermont teammate Wesley Fofana should finally see some quality ball in a French jersey, and that is a prospect no side will welcome.
Scotland have looked much improved under Vern Cotter and it’s his good fortune that they too have unearthed a cocky young talent to fill the troublesome out-half slot.
Things were so bad a few years ago, current captain and scrum-half Greig Laidlaw saw himself pressed into action there but didn’t have the all-round game to survive.
Duncan Weir played at out-half throughout last season’s tournament under the regime of Scott Johnson, despite the fact that Russell was starting ahead of him for Glasgow.
Since then Cotter has entrusted Russell with the responsibility and he hasn’t disappointed. Overall Scotland look like they have a assembled a dangerous set of backs for the first time in years.
The emergence of Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar and Matt Scott in midfield should help in getting Stuart Hogg on the ball on a more frequent basis and the pressure will be on Russell to put that talent to good use.
Further south, the untimely knee injury suffered by Owen Farrell for Saracens against Clermont will have removed any lingering doubt in Stuart Lancaster’s head as to who he should start for England in the No 10 jersey.
George Ford has had to operate in the shadow of his closest friend growing up but was finally selected on merit over Farrell for England’s last two November internationals against Samoa and Australia. They won both.
After two cameo appearances off the bench in last year’s Six Nations against Wales and Italy, Ford’s time has finally come.
The only problem here is that England’s midfield has been decimated by injury and Lancaster still hasn’t decided on a discernible style of play for his team.
Size has always been an issue for Ford and it’s one of the reasons Leicester Tigers were happy to allow him join Bath a few seasons ago.
His defence has improved immeasurably since then but having Jamie Roberts bearing down on him as he is sure to do in Cardiff on Friday night means he is going to have a lot to deal with. In addition his place-kicking has let him down at key moments in the past.
With Italy also likely to field a rookie at out-half with New Zealander Kelly Haimona favoured to start against Ireland, four of the six coaches are taking the plunge in this season’s tournament with a view towards resolving a problem position before the World Cup.
Wales have no such worries on that front with the Ospreys half-back pairing of Rhys Webb and Dan Bigger in outstanding form at present. Webb has offered Bigger a new lease of life which puts Wales in a good place going into Friday’s key opener against England.
The outcome of that one will have massive ramifications for the destination of the title. Right across the board this weekend, so much depends on how the man wearing No 10 copes with the pressure. I can’t wait to find out.
