When it comes to politics, we just don’t like going to extremes

MUCH has been made of a leftward shift in Irish politics based on the outcome of last weekend’s elections. The reality is that the move is more apparent than real. The bulk of the Irish electorate does not like extremes, of either the right-wing or left-wing variety, and will not vote for them in large numbers.

This is why the Progressive Democrats no longer exist on the right — not that the party was as right-wing as many liked to paint it — and why Libertas has gone out of business having failed its first test.

Declan Ganley will be missed, but only for the entertainment he provided, just as in some ways the presence of Michael McDowell would provide a bit of fun if he was still active in politics.

Clearly very smart, witty and articulate, it was fascinating to watch how badly Ganley spooked the political establishment, members of other parties putting aside their differences to unite in debates against their bête noir.

However, it was the people he attracted to assist him in Libertas who raised concerns as to what Ganley and his organisation really stood for. Raymond O’Malley — the candidate in Ireland East — raised the hare of immigration during a live radio debate I conducted in Naas and despite pleas from one of his handlers during an advertising break to “clarify” his position, O’Malley pointedly refused to change tack. The following evening Dublin candidate Caroline Simons came into my studio to put forward fuzzily-thought out ideas for a “blue-card” system for immigrant workers, which Fianna Fáil’s candidate Thomas Byrne (one of the rising stars of that party) dispatched smartly.

A week later, Simons refused five requests from me to state her position on gay marriage/civil partnerships, saying it was a national not a European issue.

The left-wing is more interesting because of the election of the Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins as a Member of the European Parliament for Dublin. This suggests that Dublin has moved hard to the left as one of the other three seats was regained by Prionsais de Rossa of Labour who, it should be remembered, was once of the Official IRA, before journeying through the Workers Party and Democratic Left before joining Labour. But that would be overstating things. De Rossa is no longer the firebrand of old. Although he would still regard himself as a socialist he is of the “soft” variety. You don’t ever hear him banging on about putting everything into State ownership or taxing anyone with a modest income to the hilt.

Higgins, of course, is a genuine and committed socialist. Were the Lispole native ever to be given the chance he would seize of the assets of big companies and rich people in the name of redistribution to the workers. He’ll never get the chance, however, and a desire to assist his class warfare did not persuade his voters to support him in last Friday’s election.

I know plenty of people who voted for Higgins, not because they believe in his solution to problems but because they admire his honesty. With Higgins what you hear is what you get. He does not flinch from telling you what he thinks and answers every question directly. People admire his genuine concern for the underdog and the ordinary and his desire to serve them. They felt that his commitment deserved reward. But that doesn’t mean that they would back him if he was ever to get near to power: he was elected to be a dissenting voice and an entertaining irritant to those who control the levers.

Higgins was far more attractive as a dissenting voice than Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein, for example, to those who wanted to punish Fianna Fáil. Yet her loss of a seat in Dublin was almost as significant as Eoin Ryan’s defeat for Fianna Fail. With the number of seats in the capital reduced from four to three Ryan’s ejection should have been enough to save her position. That she lost to someone like Higgins in those opportune circumstances is a disaster for both her personally and for the party.

Any plans that Sinn Féin may have had to position McDonald as its leader in the Republic — which is what it was rumoured to be planning — will have to be ditched.

McDonald is not a strong enough vote-winner. She has failed in two attempts to reach the Dáil and has now lost her Brussels seat. She has no council seat and there is no way that Christy Burke will give up his to give her a new platform. Burke’s decision to quit Sinn Féin after running for the party in the Dublin Central by-election — and to retain his council seat as an independent — is sensational and hints at something big afoot within Sinn Féin in Dublin. Burke was treated by badly by the party hierarchy previously, being forced to step aside in 2002 to allow Nicky Kehoe run instead and then to allow McDonald a run in 2007.

Indeed, it’s not just Dublin. Sinn Féin has hit a glass ceiling in Irish politics and this is one of the most interesting examples of how Irish voters do not like extremes. Sinn Féin should have made hay in these polls, given the collapse in Fianna Fáil’s support. Instead, it has lost its only European seat and has failed to add anything to its list of local councillors, remaining stuck on 54. Its share of the national vote remained unchanged from five years ago.

The only bright spot was the strong performance of Toireasa Ferris in Ireland South, but she is not going to gain Sinn Féin a second seat in a general election in Kerry North and she might not do well enough either anywhere else to do so.

Any chance that Padraig McLoughlin might have had in Ireland North West was ended by Fianna Fail’s canny decision to keep the Donegal vote by running Pat “The Cope” Gallagher.

Sinn Féin is caught between a rock and a hard place. The attraction of those who “fought” during the IRA campaign of terror is limited, but the slew of new, young candidates — many of whom are very articulate and impressive and who never fired a shot in anger — is not proving sufficiently attractive either.

Sinn Fein doesn’t know what to do with Gerry Adams either. Having performed disastrously in the last general election campaign, his media input this time around was limited. Sinn Féin seems to think he is some kind of rock star, McLoughlin boasting at one stage of how Adams was mobbed by admiring crowds on a tour of his constituency. But the truth is that Sinn Féin has reached a plateau and could fall as easily as it could rise in the next general election.

Nearly 70% of the electorate voted for the parties of the centre — Fine Gael (slightly right), Labour (slightly left) and Fianna Fail (largely confused, for the moment anyway) — in the local polls and this figure is likely to increase a little come a general election. The Greens have come towards the centre and many of the independents reside there too. If the extremes were to have any real chance of a significant breakthrough it should have happened last weekend. This may be near as far as most of them will get.

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm. He is also presenting TV3’s GAA championship coverage, including tomorrow’s Munster Senior Football Championship replay between Cork and Kerry, starting at 4.30pm.