Let’s elect a new government that will deliver one stunning blow
Tomorrow’s trade union-organised day of action is against the Government’s plans to introduce a new pension levy on the public service, but it does not seem to be going as far as demanding a change of government — although it will be interesting to hear if that sentiment is expressed and develops.
It’s almost as if the public has so little faith in politicians that it believes a change of government would make hardly any difference, no matter how bad the current lot seems to be.
As it happens, the pension levy is only the start of a whole load of unpalatable things any government is going to have to do over the next 12 months.
Fair or not, the State’s financial position is so dire, with spending far exceeding income and the ability to borrow on reasonable terms far from certain even when desirable, that savage cuts to government spending are going to have to be made and extra charges for services and taxes are going to have to be levied.
The pain is going to be considerable.
Here’s a list of some of the dramatically unpopular things that most likely are going to have to be done: nIncome taxes to rise.
*Property taxes to be introduced.
*Carbon taxes to be brought in under the guise of improving the environment.
nChild benefit to be taxed.
nThird-level fees to be restored.
*Social welfare payments to be reduced.
Most of the things on that list will be anathema to most voters, even though on closer inspection some of them are socially desirable and fairer, even if the conventional wisdom declares otherwise.
But a Government that failed to remove the automatic entitlement to medical cards for the over-70s — which should not be available to those with the obvious means to cover the cost of healthcare for themselves — is not going to be able to convince the public that any or all of those measures is justified.
The European Commission has not just questioned the Government’s ability to implement its recovery plan and criticised the plan’s lack of clarity, but it has also criticised the Government’s failure to manage the boom properly. So the Government can’t even claim its record provides a basis for people to be confident about its abilities to lead us out of this economic mess. The Government claims it has a democratic mandate given to it by the people during the 2007 general election. That is true, but the claim is weakened somewhat by the fact that few anticipated Fianna Fáil would invite the Greens into government. Bertie Ahern may have left Brian Cowen with extraordinary handicaps to overcome but he left one legacy for which Cowen must be very grateful.
Apparently against Cowen’s own judgment, Ahern insisted the Greens had to be accommodated. It was a political masterstroke, albeit not one that necessarily serves the national interest now. If the six Green TDs were not there the Fianna Fáil Government would be highly vulnerable.
Instead, the Greens have shown themselves willing to take the brunt of just about anything that can be thrown at the Government, so zealous are they about implementing their environmental agenda in what they may see as their only shot at power.
As the Greens may find out in forthcoming elections — at all levels — the public may not appreciate their devotion to the cause as it has had the side-effect of keeping Fianna Fáil afloat when otherwise it would have sunk.
A Cowen-led government may have a Dáil mandate but it does not have a popular one and now the opinion polls are proving it.
A new government, even if it included Fianna Fáil as a result of how the seats would be distributed, would be in a stronger position to act because it would have a mandate. New governments have about six months to act before their popularity starts to wane dramatically.
As one of the big failures of this Government has been its piecemeal approach to reform and surgery, a new government could deliver all that’s necessary in one stunning blow — using the refrain “but you elected us” — and hope its benefits would be seen in time for the next general election in five years.
Fine Gael and Labour may fear Fianna Fáil would benefit after five years from their cleaning up its mess, but they should take that chance if they get it. There are suspicions that some in Government might actually like the chance to hand over the reins at present. Most of them are there too long, they are tired and they have no solutions to the tsunami of problems swamping them.
However, the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Mary Hanafin, had the stock answer prepared when I interviewed her about this on air last Friday. She said the country could not afford the distraction of an election campaign when urgent action had to be taken to save the economy. There are a couple of problems with that, however. One is that the Dáil shut down for 40 days over Christmas and the Government told us it did not interfere with its workings.
More importantly, the Government took time out from decision-making to deal, unsuccessfully, with the social partners, so if that was justified then what has changed so much to make it impossible to delay remedial economic action while an election is fought? Especially, if the serving government has no solutions.
FINE Gael has put itself on an election footing and not just in preparation for the European and local elections next June either.
Labour has called for a general election, even before its and leader Eamon Gilmore’s surge in the opinion poll ratings, but realising it is unlikely to get what it hopes for, it is requesting a resumption and extension of social partnership, presumably meaning that the democratically-elected opposition will finally get as much say as unelected elites.
Both Fine Gael and Labour know also that the outcome of an election — even now — is far from certain.
Labour, in particular, has the problem of a lack of candidates to capitalise on its new opinion approval ratings: it has nobody to put forward in some constituencies and would lack a viable second in some others.
Fine Gael has reason to fear that its leader Enda Kenny — if presented as an alternative Taoiseach — might not convince. There is also the not inconsiderable problem of how the two would coalesce. Their economic strategies are wildly different now, and who would be made Minister for Finance? The estimable Richard Bruton or the experienced and successful former holder of the office Ruairi Quinn?
Could it even be that numbers will dictate a return to power for Fianna Fáil, albeit in a much weaker position? But such questions are redundant until people get a chance to vote in a general election first. Let’s hope we get one, so a new government — no matter what its make-up — gets a mandate.
The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.
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