FF elephant in the room still there, but we have the memory of a goldfish

GOLDFISH are supposed to have memories that last just three seconds. Do many Irish voters suffer the same trait?

How else can you explain the rise of Fianna Fáil, according to the latest opinion poll, that places its support at 26% of the electorate, a near doubling in its support since April last year?

Would just over a quarter of the electorate vote to put Fianna Fáil back into government, if given that chance? Do these people really think that Fianna Fáil has been punished sufficiently for its failings during its last lengthy period in government? Do they have confidence that Fianna Fáil, if returned to power, would have learned from its mistakes so well that it wouldn’t make them again? Party leader Micheál Martin is being cautious, and well he should be. Fianna Fáil rarely gets as many votes in an election as opinion polls indicate it will. Some people seem to pause and reflect just as it comes to casting their votes. He knows that the local and European elections next year will tell the real tale, assuming of course that circumstances don’t bring about a surprise general election in the meantime. He doesn’t want to be talking things up for his party at this time, as he enforces a disciplined approach to rebuilding. He suspects that the poll findings would have been different had it been taken days later than it was, after the announcement of the Anglo Irish Bank promissory notes deal (though I suspect that any benefits to the Government in that are going to be limited and short term) “From our perspective, we have a lot to do to regain the trust of the Irish people,” he said this week. The appearance of humility will have to be maintained.

But what things have combined to mean that Fianna Fáil, with just 20 seats in Dáil Éireann after the last election and a poll tally of just 17.4% first preferences, is now the second most popular party in the Dáil? At least Fianna Fáil, under the new leadership of Martin, started by admitting its failings. His predecessor Brian Cowen irritated the hell out of everybody by having every excuse possible for his government’s failings. The Irish people are more forgiving of the penitent and for at least a year after falling from grace, poor Fianna Fáil adopted the sackcloth and ashes, not only sharing the people’s pain but admitting responsibility for it.

This waned about the middle of last year though. Fianna Fáil seemed to come to the conclusion that if it kept apologising it would go out of business, that it had to return to the traditional opposition of bashing the Government, to undermine confidence in it. Since then Fianna Fáil has been extraordinarily cynical or clever — depending on how you look at these things — in attempting to undermine the Government at almost every opportunity.

The opposition to the property tax is the most incredible example of this. It was the last government, the Fianna Fáil-led administration, in November 2010, that promised the lending troika of the IMF, ECB and EU that, as one of the terms and conditions, in return for the provision of money, it would introduce a property tax in the Budget for 2012.

It was a hell of a controversial commitment to leave to the successor administration, but a very clever booby-trap too. Even in its political extremis, Fianna Fáil was clever. It did not specify what type of property tax would be introduced, or how much it would raise, leaving that near impossible task to its successor. This was explosive, given the Irish attachment to property and disdain at the idea of paying tax on the home. Fine Gael and Labour are in the process of detonating this mine and it will not be an easily controlled explosion.

Fianna Fáil has argued that other taxes could be raised as a replacement for the property tax but has not convincingly explained what type, and how much would be raised. It doesn’t really have to do so, however. All voters want to hear are politicians saying ‘no’ to property taxes.

The sheer effrontery of Fianna Fáil seemingly knows few bounds. It is campaigning now against cuts to the Garda budget when again it agreed the cuts in staff numbers with the troika, cuts the current government is now implementing. This week Michael McGrath reacted to the broadcast of a major documentary on Irish Nationwide Building Society by demanding that a special report compiled by accountants Ersnt & Young be published. This would be entirely reasonable coming from anybody else. Brian Lenihan as finance minister received those reports eight months before leaving office. Fianna Fáil hid them.

Of course it is helped by the fact that both Fine Gael and Labour, while in opposition, called for the immediate publication of the report but is now suppressing it.

Fianna Fáil is benefiting from the public erosion of confidence in the Government. This rise in dissatisfaction is now settling into a consistent long-term trend. The Government parties fulminated too much in opposition but once in government have proven to be little different to their predecessors in the implementation of policy. Property taxes, water charges and other measures may have been agreed with the troika but Fine Gael and Labour unwisely fostered the impression they would unravel unpopular deals. That wasn’t possible.

Much is being made of the collapse in support for Labour but what is equally interesting is how the rise in Fianna Fáil support is being mirrored in the fall in Fine Gael support. Fianna Fáil’s improvement has been accompanied by a slightly bigger fall in support for Fine Gael. (Labour, meanwhile, is being creamed by the rise of Sinn Féin and other left wing parties and independents. It saves much of its ire for Fianna Fáil but may be targeting the wrong enemy).

NO WONDER many Government ministers have become increasingly tetchy in the face of the opposition they are experiencing, feeling under appreciated for the hard work and horrible decisions they feel they are making in almost impossible circumstances. Often they have only themselves to blame, because they have failed to deliver on the promises they made in opposition. Much of the public is only interested in now, not in what happened a few years ago. They blame who is in power, not who was. Fianna Fáil also seems to be benefiting from brand strength. The names of Bertie Ahern and Cowen can almost be jettisoned. The party itself still has meaning. That makes Micheál Martin’s survival as leader remarkable, given he was a member of government from 1997 to 2011. Yet he has drawn level with Taoiseach Enda Kenny in terms of public popularity and moved ahead of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams. He has some personal skills clearly.

But he knows he can’t get too far ahead of himself. Much of the Fianna Fáil support is old and rural and it is not recovering ground sufficiently fast in Dublin.

And the brand identity issue could be significant when the next general election comes around.

The logical combination for the next government is Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, given that between them they share just about 50% of the vote. They have a similar centre right ideology. Combined they could keep Sinn Féin out of power and may have to combine to do so. But what would happen to the respective brands and do they deserve power?

- The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.