Formula predicts child’s risk of obesity

Parents are being offered a way to predict the chances of their newborn baby becoming obese.

Fri, 30 Nov, 2012 - 00:00

John von Radowitz

The online prediction is based on factors including the baby’s birth weight, the body mass index (BMI) of its parents, and the number of people in the household.

Also taken into account are the mother’s professional status and whether she smoked during pregnancy.

Childhood obesity is a leading cause of early type-2 diabetes and heart and circulatory disease, which is becoming more common in developed countries.

The formula, described in the online journal Public Library of Sciences ONE, uses data from a Finnish study set up in 1986 which followed the fortunes of 4,000 children.

Scientists found that while genetic profiles were unreliable, non-genetic information readily available at birth could predict which children would become obese.

Further tests in Italy and the US confirmed that the approach worked.

“This test takes very little time, it doesn’t require any lab tests and it doesn’t cost anything,” said lead researcher Professor Philippe Froguel, from the School of Public Health, Imperial College London.

“All the data we use are well-known risk factors for childhood obesity, but this is the first time they have been used together to predict from the time of birth the likelihood of a child becoming obese.”

The 20% of children predicted to have the highest risk at birth make up 80% of obese children, say the researchers.

Wowie: "@TIMEHealthland: Researchers create an obesity risk calculator to predict a child's risk at birth | http://t.co/pXQq5qgr"
— Tralee Pearce (@TraleePearce) November 29, 2012