Carbon gas levels may see hundreds of millions in fines

Ireland is facing fines that could run into hundreds of millions from next year for failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions — mainly because of the national herd.

And with the plan to double the number of cattle as carbon gas targets are being set, the cost could be astronomical.

The Government is in intense discussions with the European Commission to resolve the problem by getting them to recognise the role grass and forest plays in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere.

They are meeting resistance as the commission fears that if Ireland gets this concession then other countries with vast pasture land will want it also.

A national expert has been seconded to the commission and Teagasc is carrying out research with EU funds to find a solution, but time is running out.

Irish agriculture is the biggest producer of methane gas in the world after New Zealand. The methane is produced by cattle and sheep as they digest their food and is emitted mainly by belching.

Five years ago, Ireland, together with Denmark and Luxembourg, was set the highest target — to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from agriculture, transport, buildings, waste and some energy generation.

But Irish experts believe that by the target date of 2020, instead of reducing by a fifth, the country will only have managed a cut of 3%

Ireland was also set annual targets from 2013, which it met last year and hopes to meet this year also, but will not achieve next year.

The Government will be able to buy credits, but just for one year.

For missing out on more than one year the country will face penalties and be referred to the European Court of Justice for infringing the EU agreement and could be fined substantial sums.

On top of that, the country will have to buy carbon credits to compensate for the extra gases being emitted over and above the target it was set.

“It could cost hundreds of millions of euro,” said a well-placed EU source.

But the situation is about to get even worse, as new targets are being set to be met by 2030 and are expected to require a cut of an additional 30%.

“Minus 30% for Ireland will be practically impossible to reach,” said the source.

Under the national agriculture policy, Harvest 2020, the national herd is set to double to produce more milk following the lifting of quotas in the EU next year. In the meantime, the EU is calling on member states to produce more food, and Irish beef has less of a carbon footprint per kilo than that produced elsewhere.

Pastureland, bogs and forests are known as carbon sinks as they absorb and retain huge amounts of carbon dioxide — although not methane gas — but they are not acknowledged as such under the EU rules.

However the global Kyoto protocol does not exclude this — something the Government is hoping will help them convince the European Commission to take them into account for Ireland.

The commission was at first hostile to the idea, but has recognised now that there is a problem, but the Government will need to convince fellow member states also and come up with a solution.

Emission targets were set based on a country’s GDP and Ireland wants to ensure a different method is used this year as the country’s GDP is still high, reflecting the flow of multi-nationals profits through the country.