Ireland ‘to win’ in global trading

The economy should capitalise on the return of global growth and increased trade with emerging economies, according to HSBC, which predicted the country should record annual trade growth of around 6%.

According to HSBC’s biennial trade forecast, growing momentum from the US, eurozone, and a doubling in export volumes to China should all combine to boost Irish exports.

Alan Duffy of HSBC said: “Irish firms are very well-placed to exploit the brightening outlook for the major Western economies. Geographic proximity to the UK will allow exporters to share in their brisk recovery, and trade links and a common currency will help Irish firms re-establish their positions in eurozone markets after a few years of lacklustre performance.

“Although the rich developed markets will continue to offer the best opportunities for Ireland’s exporters in the near term, fast-growing demand from emerging markets will become increasingly significant over time.”

HSBC predicts China will be the most important of the emerging markets for Ireland, with the share of Irish exports to double from around 2% to 4% by 2030.

The chemicals sector is expected to be the biggest portion of Irish exports, accounting for around half of foreign sales over the next few years. The industry is forecast to contribute around 40% of export growth from 2021-30.

Pharmaceuticals will continue to grow in importance, HSBC predicts, and by 2021-30, are expected to account for over a quarter of exports.

The hi-tech sector is also set to share in the exports boon of the coming years. At a macro level, hi-tech exports represent a relatively small share of Ireland’s total merchandise exports, at 9%. This is expected to rise to about 12% by 2030,

HSBC also monitored confidence and found that Ireland was ahead of the global average, scoring 117 on the Trade Confidence Index.

The majority of survey respondents expect trade volumes to increase over the next six months.