Fine Gael and Labour could still buy this General Election

That an election is coming soon is no secret. All that is now a secret is exactly when it will happen.

Mind you, if the latest buzz is true, that Enda Kenny’s senior handlers are trying to keep him out of the way of inquisitive reporters given his propensity to put his foot in his mouth, it’s going to be much sooner rather than later.

Opinion polls appear to continue to suggest that the partnership of Fine Gael and Labour is still a possibility even if both parties are not exactly seeing eye to eye — which sort of gives lie to the claim that the outgoing team would bring stability.

But given the weakness of Fianna Fáil, the continuing smell of cordite that still seems to surround Sinn Féin and the probable Heinz 57 mix of the rest of the field, the incumbents may well be the only ones who can put a government together.

But, unfortunately, for Fine Gael and Labour, the likelihood of being returned may not be enough to prevent them from trying to guarantee a win by buying the election.

On the surface it might seem like there is little risk in doing this.

After all, the economy is growing at its fastest rate for 15 years.

GDP is growing at over 7% this year, while business group Ibec is projecting strong growth again next year.

Many other forecasters are looking at the huge unexpected bounty the exchequer is harvesting from the corporate tax receipts.

Even more important for a Fine Gael government eager to achieve re-election for the first time in its history, and with corporation tax returns racing more than €3bn ahead of projections, is that it will succumb to the overwhelming temptation of doing whatever is necessary to get itself back into government.

However, the EU, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Ibec are advising caution.

Buying an election will inevitably result in making long-term commitments when there is no guarantee that these additional taxes that come in this year will come in next.

Indeed, since nobody seems to know where these additional revenues came from, it would be foolhardy in the extreme to take it that they will recur.

There are very good reasons for taking a cautious approach to additional expenditures based on possibly once-off tax revenues. Corporation taxation laws are changing in the US and the EU.

These additional tax revenues just might be a once off realignment to avoid some of the impact of changes at EU or US level. Indeed, proposed EU taxation changes will result in a massive reduction of the tax take from the pharmaceutical sector.

The last time we were in a similar position we were placing our bets on stamp duty on new buildings, predominately homes.

We thought it could go on forever.

The commitments that government made back then convinced us to re-elect the administration.

During the boom years, public sector pay scales went up by double digit figures.

Politicians introduced social welfare and other general supports which increased well in excess of inflation.

In other words, we wrote long-term cheques without having the necessary resources to ensure they were sustainable.

Then along came 2008 and the country went bust.

Ibec argues, as do others including Sinn Féin, that while we should be grateful for any additional revenues we should be mindful of what can and has gone wrong and ring fence these resources.

They could then be used to fund at once urgent and standalone national projects.

Such expenditures have the benefit of putting vital infrastructure in place.

That will help the economy grow while not making ongoing expenditure commitments into an uncertain future.

There’s an old adage that says ‘if we always do what we always did, we always get what we always got.’

Putting on Fianna Fáil’s overcoat in trying to win the upcoming election will be no different, but this time we will not have the patience or the tolerance.

There will be dire consequences for the economy of any wrong moves.