- NEWS
Pictures take you upstairs and downstairs in the ‘Big Houses’ of IrelandAn exhibition of Big House photos reveals some intimate moments in the lives of both the families and staff, says Tommy Barker
Appeal for public help in double murder probeA double murder investigation involving more than 50 gardaí got under way in Killorglin, Co Kerry, after autopsies confirmed a Lithuanian woman and her young daughter had died violently.
- WORLD
Brand divorced me by text, says Perry Pop star Katy Perry has revealed that Russell Brand told her he was divorcing her in a text message.
Ex-hitman: Bulger’s FBI dealings ‘broke my heart’A former criminal associate of James "Whitey" Bulger told jurors at the accused mob boss's trial that he agreed to testify against his old friend after learning that his former gang pals had begun co-operating with law enforcement.
- BUSINESS
Aircraft leasing firm buys 10 Boeing jetsShannon-based aircraft leasing firm GE Capital Aviation Services have bought 10 new Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners for an estimated $3bn (€2.24bn) at list price.
20% of rich see value of assets halved Nearly 20% of Ireland's wealthy people have seen the value of their assets halved as a result of their over-reliance on property.
- SPORT
GPA may get involved over Friday night championship dictatThe GPA could yet act on the behalf of the Carlow and Laois football panels as they have confirmed neither they nor the players were consulted about Friday week's All-Ireland round one qualifier.
Kearney keeps eyes on main prize Rob Kearney might not have felt like putting his best foot forward today as the Lions continued to prepare for Saturday's all-important first Test against Australia but he is experienced enough to know that after this midweek defeat by the Brumbies, it is essential for the main mission of the tour.
- LIFESTYLE
Bradley bares his soul Soul singer Charles Bradley found fame late in life, but is haunted by his past, writes Ed Power
Our history of shame about sex laid bareSPECTATORS of the live dance-art show, Witches, will have to wake early or stay up late to watch it.
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Breaking stories
A no vote could cripple us in European talks
By Jim Power
The latest global economic prognosis from the OECD does not make for reassuring reading.
It paints a picture of a global economic outlook, or at least the developed part of the world, that will be quite depressed over the next couple of years.It is predicting recovery, but the recovery is expected to be quite muted, particularly in the eurozone. Based on the current unsustainable level of government debt and the still very fragile nature of the global banking system and the consequent scarcity of credit, recovery was always going to be a slow and difficult affair.
For the small, open Irish economy the external economic prognosis is not exactly what is required, and already we are starting to see signs that the deterioration in the global environment over recent months is starting to impact negatively on the export performance.
In theory, the election of the new French president is positive news for the Irish economy. François Hollande fought the election on the basis of the need for an economic stimulus in Europe. Given the eurozone’s recent and prospective dismal economic performance, such a stimulus cannot come too soon, but it is not clear what such policies might need to contain to be effective.
One clear impediment to growth is the anti-inflation and by definition anti-growth bias built into the ECB mandate. The paranoia of the ECB was in evidence last year when at the first signs of growth in the eurozone, the trigger happy institution couldn’t help itself and moved to tighten interest rates twice by a combined 0.5%. These moves were premature and were partly instrumental in engineering the subsequent sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity.
The magnitude of the rate increase is not the issue, but it is the psychological message that this paranoid behaviour displayed. The ECB has got to make a contribution to recovery.
The problem, of course, is that if 1% base rates do not encourage economic activity, what impact would a cut of 0.5% or 0.75% have? This is a good question, but it would send out a clear message about a change of focus in the ECB. In the longer term, an examination of the ECB’s mandate should be undertaken to determine if a more balanced mandate, encouraging growth, would be more appropriate.
Of course, much more is needed to lift the moribund euro economy out of its malaise. Reform of labour markets; the purchasing of bonds by the ECB; infrastructure funding from the European Investment Bank; tax incentives; the quantitative easing of money supply; and some sort of debt relief for the most heavily and hopelessly indebted peripheral countries, including Ireland, are just some of the short and long-term growth initiatives required.
From an Irish perspective, anything that would boost eurozone growth would be good for the country. However, there are three key impending interactions with Europe that will be crucial to Ireland’s future.
There is the imminent reform of the CAP; the restructuring of government debt, particularly in relation related to the infamous promissory notes; and financial assistance from Europe to address the personal debt mess. These are three of the biggest battles we have to fight with Europe.
All three are crucial to Ireland’s longer-term future and those who are calling for a no vote in the referendum should remember that. If we reject the fiscal treaty, we will seriously undermine our negotiating strength in relation to all three issues.
The no side would obviously get a major boost from a rejection and might feel that Ireland has taken a step to restore some pride, but the campaigners should be mindful of the longer-term damage they could do. There are much bigger battles to fight with Europe than this treaty, and we should keep our powder dry for those.
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