After the vote, what happens to Greece?

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s plan to hold a referendum tomorrow on creditors’ demands for austerity has prompted a breakdown in talks with lenders, forced Greece to shut banks, and left its future in the eurozone in doubt.

A day out, the result of the vote remains unclear. Whether Greeks choose yes or no, the country is expected to face a new period of uncertainty and political turmoil.

Here are the main scenarios likely after the vote:

A yes vote to the bailout terms

Greece’s left-wing government has openly urged Greeks to vote no. It would be political suicide for Tsipras to implement a programme he has repeatedly called a “humiliation” for his country and which he has vehemently opposed.

Tsipras has strongly hinted that he would step down in the event of a yes vote, telling Greek television: “If the Greek people want to have a humiliated prime minister, there are a lot of them out there. It won’t be me.”

If Tsipras resigned, the country would normally be expected to go to snap elections — with September cited as a likely time.

Given Athens faces major debt payments this month and is at the peak of a financial crisis that has forced it to shut banks, the president is likely to push for the formation of a cross-party, “national unity”, interim government to continue talks with lenders and keep Greece afloat until elections are held.

Pulling together such a government will not be an easy feat. Pro-euro parties like the centrist To Potami, the centre-left Pasok, and the conservative New Democracy have signalled their willingness to take part in such a government. Together, though, they hold only 106 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

That would mean Syriza and its junior coalition partner — the right-wing Independent Greeks party — would have to support or join such a government to keep it going.

Such a government would likely be led by a non-partisan or so-called technocrat; former prime minister Costas Karamanlis made a rare public address urging Greeks to vote yes tomorrow, setting tongues wagging that he could be one such candidate.

A national salvation government would not be unprecedented in Athens.

The last time Greece flirted with a referendum — in 2011 when former PM George Papandreou sought one before scrapping it and being ousted — a technocrat government backed by the major parties replaced him until elections were held the following year.

Some Syriza officials say in the case of a yes vote, Tsipras himself might opt to stay and attempt to keep negotiations going with lenders on the understanding that the country would head to elections once the country’s finances stabilised by September.

A no vote in the referendum

Greek government officials say a no vote would strengthen Greece’s negotiating hand with creditors, a prospect that eurozone policymakers, including the head of finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, have flatly denied.

Tsipras’s government has said it would immediately resume talks with creditors. European officials believe it would be very hard to agree a new bailout since the no vote would be interpreted as a rejection of engagement with creditors.

Eurozone policymakers have warned that a no vote would signal a rejection of the euro and shut the door on the prospect of further aid from creditors, leaving the country in uncharted territory, and isolated within the eurozone.

Greece would likely end up defaulting to the ECB on huge payments due on July 20 and see its financial crisis deepen rapidly, with banks unlikely to open amid the uncertainty.

The ECB would likely continue to freeze or pull emergency funding to the Greek banks, further raising pressure on Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, as they try to reach a deal in the midst of a full-on banking collapse.

That in turn could force Tsipras to resign to pave the way for a national unity government.

The government could also opt to issue a parallel currency or IOUs to tide it over — effectively setting in motion a Greece exit.