Tipperary sale sets record
It could be seen as a triumph for the small man if a farmer buyer with a war chest of 10 million could be said to be the underdog.
He was Co Cork farmer Willie Ahern, beating off competition from the bloodstock industry at the auction to take the prize of a 380 acre farm and its period residence.
It's rare for the heavy hitters of the racehorse industry like John Magnier to be beaten at auction, said the selling agent, John Stokes, but Willie Ahern bid up to a record 25,000 per acre to gain this farm.
Roger Hunt of Cashel Marts and joint agents, Stokes and Quirke, also beat off stiff competition from the large national firms for the instructions to sell, and they ended up with a triumphant result for their vendors, the Gough family.
Mr Ahern had sold his dairy farm holding in Passage West, Co Cork for development and while no exact figure was released, estimates of that sale ranged from 15m to 20m.
The dairy man will be bringing 270,000 gallons of quota with him to Cashel in the new year. The original guide price given for Synone House was 4.5m.
In early April, auctioneer John Hodnett of SWS achieved a record price for the West Cork region when he sold a dairy farm of 51.4 acres farm with a quota of 67,678 gallons for 880,000, the equivalent of 17,300 per acre.
According to Mr Hodnett, the sale showed that the farming industry, particularly dairying, is still bullish in West Cork and he sees that continuing into 2004, despite the uncertainty about decoupling.
Land sales were generally slow in January and February, he added, but picked up in March and continued steadily over the year.
Prices were good and so was demand, he says, and the average sale price was in the region of 8,000 per acre, with poorer land starting at 4,000 per acre.
In West Waterford, Margaret Harty says that demand has been consistently good, with sales of smaller lots holding their values, but with a scarcity of larger farms coming onto the market.
There's a definite sense of 'sitting and holding', she says, with regard to farm sales, and this is borne out by all the other agents, who generally felt there was less land for sale this year than previously.
Values, however have held and in some cases increased.
Ms Harty also sees a strong demand for letting land, a forecast which is accepted nationwide as smaller lots are being snapped up, she says, for activating decoupled entitlements.
Good land in West Waterford averages 6,000 to 8,000 per acre, she says, and forestry land gains a per acre price in excess of 3,000.
While decoupling will be good for the whole industry, she feels there will be a few years of uncertainty until the system settles in, which could leave the supply of farming property at a low level.
During late October, auctioneer Christy Buckley had one of the most unusual sales of the year at Camphire Farm in Co Waterford.
The polder-like, 266 acre holding at the confluence of the Bride and Blackwater rivers, sold for over 1.4m. Virtually an island, it was part of the huge, 2,000 acre holding of the Perceval-Maxwell and Jameson families. It was drained by John Maxwell in the 1970s, using Dutch technology and has been used for grazing and tillage.
There weren't a lot of farm sales this year, says Clonakilty, Co Cork based Henry O'Leary, who had a 1m sale in Glandore. This scenic, coastal parcel of 100 acres, part of the estate of the late Barty Whelton, was bought by an American.
Henry O'Leary feels there won't be any dramatic changes in the market until at least 2005, as the farming community assimilate the changes to come. Regardless of what's happening, when land comes up next door, a farmer feels obliged to buy, says Mr O'Leary, who also sold a 30 acre holding at Ballinascarthy for a high price of 14,000 per acre.
Years and generations of tradition in land ownership will be tested severely by the Fischler CAP Re form, says Mr O'Leary, who predicts a volume increase in sales in 2005, when he expects marginal farmers to make a conscious career change.
Most of the agents say they dealt with pure land sales this year, entitlements were not an issue, and any promise system, whereby a vendor could include entitlements in the sale, didn't arise.
Contracts of this kind wouldn't hold water, they all agreed, and sales progressed without a transfer of potential entitlements.
Farm consultant, Michael Brady of the Brady Group says, 'all balls are in the air' when it comes to the dairy sector and he defines farmers here into three loose categories. The first is the farmer who already works off farm and doesn't rely on the property for his income.
This guy will do okay, says Brady, and if he likes his cows, should continue. Changes in REPS means there's 'heaps of money to draw down' he says, with the cut-off raised to 125 acres, and a staggering of payments.
An average "winding down" farmer can go into REPS, reduce stocking levels and pick up a payment each year, he says.
Decoupled entitlements, he forecasts, will range from almost zero to a high of 600 per acre.
The larger guy who's going to drive on his business and get bigger will always survive and prosper, but he warns, the temptation to reduce stock and do nothing is there.
However, after 2013, that farmer is "dead", he says.
Mr Brady also talks about the vulnerable farmer: the mid-level operator with less than 100 acres and a quota in and around 60,000 gallons. This dairyman has to think hard about his future, he says, and either get out fast, or expand.
Again, when to get out depends on circumstances, but most agents agree that by 2005, the market should give an indication of how farming will go.
Reductions in the number of farmers are a certainty and from the present level of 26,000, a drop to 18,000 dairy farmers is expected.
The big question this year is when to get out. Some agents advise an immediate sale but most, like their customers, are adopting a wait and see approach. Only time will tell.
