40% don’t ever want Sinn Féin in power

DEEP uncertainty among the electorate about the credibility of Sinn Féin’s transition to purely democratic politics is reflected in the findings of the Irish Examiner/Lansdowne Market Research opinion poll.

The two key questions relating to the wherewithal of the republican movement suggest sharply divided views among voters.

Late last year, the Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern said it was only a matter of time before SF would become involved in government in the South.

While the Cabinet subsequently rowed back considerably from that position following the Northern Bank raid and the McCartney murder it is clear that a majority of voters now feel that the party has sufficient credentials to participate in Government.

Asked about their attitudes to Sinn Féin, a majority, 52%, of those polled expressed approval for the proposition of SF joining a coalition government after the next election.

Of those, 14% agreed with the unconditional statement: "I would like to see Sinn Féin in a coalition government after the next election."

The vast majority of this group was comprised of SF supporters.

But a further 38% said they would like to see SF in a coalition government after the next elections only if all IRA activity has ended, in line with the IRA's recent statement.

In contrast, 39% said they would not countenance SF participation in a coalition government under any circumstances.

Unsurprisingly, most opposition came from FG and PD supporters.

However, a different picture emerges from voters' attitudes to the IRA statement in late July.

Asked about their confidence in the IRA ceasing all activities as declared in the statement, a significantly higher number of those polled, some 48% expressed a lack of, or no, confidence compared to 42% who expressed themselves fairly or very confident.

This indicates some degree of conditionality on the part of voters.

There is a significant overlap between those who do not believe activities will cease and those who would like to see SF in coalition, only if activities cease.

That, in turn, suggests that the political instinct of the Government to put the question of SF participation in a coalition on the back burner is probably correct.

A total of 71% of those who intend to vote for SF believe activities will cease. In contrast, 57% of Labour voters express a significant lack of confidence.