Rabbitte might be caught in a FG trap

THE first cardinal rule for any party in politics is to choose a fundamental set of beliefs and principles. The second cardinal rule of politics is to break the first cardinal rule if, and when, necessary.

During the 1992 election, Dick Spring was asked for his thoughts on the prospects of his party going over to the dark side with Fianna Fáil.

“It must surely be considered amazing that any party would consider coalescing with them,” he snorted with his well-practiced air of curt superiority. “It is impossible to see how anyone could support them in the future without seeing them first undergo the most radical transformation.”

Amazing? Impossible? Radical transformation? The fall of the Berlin Wall was nothing compared to the revolution that overtook Irish politics a couple of weeks after Spring uttered those famous words. The only pity was that there was no tie-in deal for a motivation book entitled: “How to Get Ahead by saying No when you really mean Yes.”

This morning the Labour Party National Conference will vote on a motion (two actually, each closely intertwined) which will have far-reaching ramifications for not just the party’s prospects in the next general election, but for Pat Rabbitte’s leadership too.

For Fine Gael, strategic alliances are a no-brainer. The party needs the support of Labour (and just about everybody else) if it has any hope of government.

For Labour, the problem is a more complex one. Like a turbulent marriage, periods of separation and reconciliation with Fine Gael have both been good and bad for the party.

In 1992, the party stood on the strength of its own platform and we had the Spring Tide. To continue the cliché, those kind of tides always ebb the deepest. Ten years later in 2002, that 1992 generation almost receded out of sight, after again forsaking any strong alliance. Now, still so far out from a general election, Rabbitte and Enda Kenny have not alone decided that they’re championship ready - they have gone out and declared their championship winning team.

It is a gamble and Rabbitte is as aware of that as anyone. Looking at Labour’s past electoral performances as a guide is an inexact science. If you look at the party’s progress between 1965 and 1973, for example, there is a contradictory trend. Its percentage vote dropped in 1969 compared with 1965 and fell further in 1973. Yet, the party’s seat representation rose with each election (albeit modestly).

There is context to that. The explanation behind the party’s high percentage and low seat return in ‘65 could be put down to the fact that the party adopted an ambitious (and not very clever) strategy that saw it fighting every constituency, and fielding two candidates in some.

In 1969, its campaign to realign Irish politics, to yoke Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together, to implant itself as the main alternative, failed. The party’s support fell but a more finessed strategy saw it get a seat bounce.

Coming back into the real world in 1973, it forged an alliance with Fine Gael, saw its percentage drop but, helped by transfers from its new ‘leath-bhadoir’, gained one seat.

In conversations with senior people around Rabbitte, they say that this debate is all over bar the shouting, and I’d say we might get a good bit of that this morning. (By the by, the party must be commended for allowing the debate to be televised live.)

The real hurdle, they said, was getting it past the National Executive Committee. And while the 2:1 ratio of support was hardly as overwhelming an endorsement as they hoped, their confidence is high that Rabbitte will carry the conference with him.

The problem for Labour is that alliances inevitably mean political and identity defenestration. The party will benefit from a strong transfer pact with Fine Gael. But so will Fine Gael. By choosing this path, the party has also effectively jettisoned any hope of ever getting to the heady heights of 30-plus seats.

It will also mean dilution. Fianna Fáil’s huge publicity coup with Martin Cullen’s aviation package should not be underestimated. With classic use of the magician’s trick of misdirection, we all gaped with awe at the second terminal being kept safe for Ireland and missed the fact that the Government had sold off the State airline. Fianna Fáil can safely say that as a dominant party they can deliver a more socialist agenda than Labour playing Robin to Fine Gael’s Batman.

As Sean Connery once famously observed: Never say never again.