Paul Hosford: Simon Harris has one big chance to shape his party and the country
'Simon Harris has the opportunity to shape the future direction of Fine Gael in a way that few party leaders have before him.' writes Paul Hosford. File picture: Jacob King/PA
When Fine Gael swept to power in 2011, the economic realities facing the country were stark.
Faced with mopping up a collapsed economy and a bank bailout, those in the party felt that they had little choice but to “right the ship” with austerity budgets.
In 2026, after 15 years at the helm, the party which prides itself on fiscal discipline is in a very different space.
Far from the days of swingeing cuts and protests, Fine Gael finds itself both in control of the Department of Finance and with a sizeable budget surplus, as we head towards October’s budget.
That budget will, of course, be Simon Harris’s first as finance minister, having taken the reins following the departure from Irish political life of Paschal Donohoe — and it may be the most consequential budget for the party for some time.
Mr Harris has the opportunity to shape the future direction of Fine Gael in a way that few party leaders have before him.
Of course, he shares the Coalition with Taoiseach Micheál Martin and any final decisions will flow through the pair’s Monday night “clearing house” meetings — but Mr Harris will never have a better chance to dictate what his party stands for.
On Tuesday, the Tánaiste told the Fine Gael parliamentary party that October’s budget will have an overall package of €7bn and that the split between taxation and spending will be decided in the summer economic statement.
The Tánaiste said that at its heart, it must be a “budget that protects the strong economy which Fine Gael in Government has built” but that it must also help “hard-working people”.
Fine Gael TDs and senators are pressing for a significant taxation package, for spending on housing, and for moves to make childcare more affordable — what one TD called “the Big Three”.
This, they say, will allow the Fine Gael leader to ease the struggles of a cohort of people “who are working every hour they have, but are still struggling with everyday life”.
Mr Harris was keen to make the point that the entry point of the higher rate of income tax, which was €33,800 in 2015, now stands at €44,000, hinting that October could see it climb ever higher.
He reiterated his intention to establish a savings and investment account and said Budget 2027 must also begin the journey towards delivering on the commitment of childcare for €200 per child per month by the end of this Government’s lifetime.
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Within Fine Gael, there are some who believe that Mr Donohoe’s prudence put a handbrake on ambition and stopped the Government from truly unleashing the massive surpluses it had built up.
But the shape of the next budget will illustrate much of who Simon Harris is and who he wants to be.
Having spent less than a year in the Taoiseach’s office, there is a sense that Mr Harris didn’t really settle on a direction or philosophy, having been unexpectedly thrust into the leadership of both his party and the country by Leo Varadkar’s shock departure.
Now unquestionably the big beast in Fine Gael, the next few months will define the legacy of Mr Harris.
While some in his party continue to preach fiscal discipline, others point to the ongoing challenges faced by working people.
Ultimately, Fine Gael’s financial choices involve balancing the books with increasing public demands for housing, healthcare, infrastructure, and climate action in a rapidly changing economy.
From here, all eyes will be on Mr Harris.
- Paul Hosford, Deputy Political Editor
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