Fergus Finlay: Europe must stand against the worst appeasement since Munich

Europe, with one voice, must confront Trump. No more pandering, no more 'we agree with you Mr President but', writes Fergus Finlay

US President Donald Trump shakes the hand of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference in Alaska, last August. ‘This is probably the defining moment of the next ten years. Europe, with one voice, must confront Trump. No more pandering.’

It’s hard to imagine the kind of existential choice that’s facing the people of Ukraine right now. In fact, I’ve been trying to put myself in their shoes. Just imagine, for a second, that you lived in a country that had been invaded and oppressed. Thousands of your people had died or been forced to flee. You’ve endured hunger and disease.

Then out of the blue you’re offered a sort of a peace deal. You send negotiators, who do their best. But they’re told, if you don’t accept this the consequence will be immediate and terrible war. As if what you had been going through wasn’t bad enough.

So your negotiators bring the deal back and recommend it to your parliament. The parliament is bitterly divided — the people as a whole are bitterly divided. The deal goes through by a narrow margin, and you lie awake at night wondering about what might happen next. You’re afraid that the division between those prepared to take a chance on a peace deal and those bitterly opposed to its terms might even lead to a civil war.

But hang on a second. We, of all people, don’t have to imagine what might happen next. We’ve been through a lot of that. We had a Civil War. It created wounds that in some lifetimes never healed. It inhibited the growth of our country and the development of our people for several generations. It shaped our politics and all our public debates for 60 years.

But in fact, and not in any way to minimise the scarring effect of our own history, what has happened to Ukraine has been worse.

An attack on Ireland

Suppose instead we were to live through a dream like this, a different dream. Suppose Ireland, out of the blue, were invaded by a hostile and powerful foreign power. They have decided there is a rich seam of lithium in the south east of our country, and they have decided to take it.

Almost overnight there are troops and tanks in Wexford and Wicklow, and right across the South East, with a vicious army that is laying waste in the most cruel way possible to the towns and villages and cities we treasure. Kilkenny is bombed almost to oblivion, thousands of people are killed. The invader uses Bray as a base from which to launch drone attacks, night after night, on the people and suburbs of Dublin.

It's hard to imagine the terror. The entire south east of Ireland runs out of food. Any reporter trying to broadcast what’s happening is shot on sight. Children are being killed, families are being destroyed. War crimes are being committed against the Irish people every day

But Ireland decides to fight. Conscription is introduced, and armies of guerilla fighters converge from every corner of the country to defend the Irish flag and our history. The courage of these conscripts, who have come from offices and farms and factories, their willingness to die for their country draws the admiration of the world.

The rest of the world supports us — or they try to. We get arms and ammunition, medical and food supplies as much as possible. They help us to get to a point where we have stalemated the invader. And they keep promising more arms, air support, intelligence. It’s never quite enough to turn the tide. The thing we keep hoping for most is that the Irish presence in the United States — a long and storied presence — will ensure American support above all.

A deal from the invader

But then the Americans bring us a deal that will end suffering. All we have to do is give the invading tyrant complete control of the counties they invaded, and all the land and potential minerals from there to Youghal in East Cork. Our little guerilla armies must be stood down immediately and we must undertake their complete disarmament. There will be no reparations, no punishment for the crimes committed by the invader.

The Americans have brought us this deal — it looks exactly as if it was written by the invader. The Americans — our closest friends in the world for nearly two centuries — have told us to accept it. “Or,” the message closes, “you’re on your own.” 

Of course, that’s all fanciful, nothing more than a story. But I know the sense of betrayal I would feel if anything like that ever happened to my country. And I think I know the sense of betrayal — Judas-like betrayal — the people of Ukraine must be feeling now.

I don’t know if there has been a moment like this before. Perhaps Munich in 1938, when the rest of Europe agreed to give Adolf Hitler part of Czechoslovakia in the fond belief that he wouldn’t look for more

 It wasn’t seen that way at the time, but the British prime minister Chamberlain’s declaration after Munich that he had found “peace in our time” came to be seen as one of the most stupid assessments in world history.

At least, though, Chamberlain wasn’t corrupt.

As I’m writing this there are likely to be many more twists in the days ahead. It has only taken a few days to figure out that 'President Trump’s 28 point peace plan' for Ukraine was nothing of the kind. All of his talk about it, as usual, turns out to be a lie. It became clear long before negotiators sat down in Geneva that the entire thing had essentially been cooked in Moscow. Trump has been forced to move from “take it or leave it” to “not my final word”.

That pressure has to be doubled and trebled. Europe, with one voice, has to say no to Trump. Europe has to be prepared to do whatever it takes to defend Ukraine and to challenge Trump, out in the open if necessary. Every European leader knows, with 100% certainty, that Trump is perfectly willing to betray Ukraine to Vladimir Putin.

 And they also know with a high degree of certainty that after Ukraine will come the Baltic States, Poland, and wherever next he fancies. And they know Trump knows all that too, and doesn’t care.

I actually don’t believe the American people as a whole will allow the single worst act of appeasement since Munich emboldened Hitler. Putin must laugh out loud every time he reads another pathetic social media post from Trump, who said on Sunday that the embattled and suffering people of Ukraine had “expressed zero gratitude” for his wonderful peace efforts.

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You just can’t imagine the Churchills or the Roosevelts of history demanding gratitude in that self-pitying way, can you? And that’s why this is probably the defining moment of the next 10 years. Europe, with one voice, must confront Trump. No more pandering, no more “we agree with you Mr President but”.

Agreements full of weasel words like non-aggression and “the reintegration of Russia” won’t cut it. No negotiation should be allowed to take place unless Ukraine is at the table as a primary partner. No agreement should be acceptable unless it is acceptable to Ukraine. No agreement should ever be allowed to justify the forcible annexation of another country’s territory. That’s what Europe must insist on. Nothing less can be accepted.