Census highlights imbalance in the State's development

An unbalanced State in terms of economic activity, and by extension, population, is one of the major issues to arise from the census figures, writes Mick Clifford

The changing nature of Irish society is always evident in the census. We see where we have come from and receive hints of where we are bound. File picture: Larry Cummins

There are 1,800 Jedi Knights in the State, according to the latest Census. 

These people, it can be assumed, are outward looking, tuned into global trends, and perhaps looking even further than the boundaries of Earth for some spiritual armour. 

Compare that with the Census of 1961, which found there were just 1,107 people in the State who claimed to have no religion at all. 

For their time, these people were arguably outward looking, or at least questioning the conventions of the prevailing culture in a highly religious society and grounded in sound philosophy. 

They looked to more enlightened societies in the developed world and perhaps the East for comfort, while today’s Jedis are perusing the world wide web to find like minds out there in cyberspace. 

Not all change is progressive.

The changing nature of Irish society is always evident in the census. We see where we have come from and receive hints of where we are bound. This week’s results were no different, but they do solidify some trends that are worthy of note. 

East v west

One of these is the complete imbalance in development between the congested east where the population growth has been greatest, and the midland, west, and north regions which are not keeping up. What to do? 

The obvious course of action is to make serious efforts to spread the opportunities, and the load, around. The Census results showed the State’s population increased by 8% between 2016 and 2022 to 5,149,139. 

All counties showed population growth, from 5% in Donegal, Kilkenny, and Tipperary to 14% in Longford. The east of the country showed the steadiest growth with Meath at 13%, Fingal (north Dublin) at 12% and Kildare showing a growth of 11%.

Census 2022 shows population up 8% to 5.15 millionhttps://t.co/22hnozHvaj#CSOIreland #Ireland #Census #Census2022 #CensusIreland #Population pic.twitter.com/WaaUUn8Ug4

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) May 30, 2023

Probably of more significance is the average annual changes over the period in question, which gives insight into the changes relative to county size. 

Fingal recorded the highest annual average increase at 11 people per 1,000 of population, while the next highest were Kildare, South Dublin, and Meath all recording nine people per 1,000. 

Kerry and Mayo had the lowest average annual increase with three people per 1,000. This all points to a younger, faster-growing population around the greater Dublin area and an older cohort living in the western counties. All of which illustrate the imbalance in development in the State. 

For well over a century now the traffic has been flowing east, much of it following global trends but also including aspects that were unique to this country. Go all the way back to the Congested District Board, which was established in 1891.

The board was established to assist those in the western counties who simply could not make a living. Arthur Balfour, who was chief secretary for Ireland at the time, visited the west and was shocked at what he saw.

“The general impression left upon the casual traveller is that you are dealing with a population not congested in the sense of being crowded, but congested by not being able to draw from their holdings a safe and sufficient livelihood or themselves and their children, whose condition trembles constantly on the verge of want,” he said, as recorded in James Morrissey’s book on the 1911 census, On The Edge Of Want.

Land Commission

One of the solutions of the Land Commission which took up the work was to transplant those in the west whose holdings were too small across the country to the east, particularly Meath and Kildare. There they were given holdings of an average size of 20 acres and with it the opportunity to make a living for themselves and their families. 

The migrants who came east weren’t always welcomed and were often treated with suspicion. There was resentment and fear, not dissimilar to the kind of emotions that are evident today in Western Europe towards refugees from underdeveloped countries fleeing poverty.

One legend that took flight was that the westerners were taking land from local people and being given preferential treatment. This was wholly untrue. Those native to Meath and Kildare who were farming similarly small holdings were given first refusal of the commission’s land. 

Some of the resentment was channelled to local politicians who gave it a voice on the floor of the Dail. 

In 1927, David Hall, a Labour party TD for county Meath, told the Dail that his county people “have no objection to the migrants, but at the same time they do not want them coming in such numbers as to scrooge out the people of Meath.” 

I do not think it is fair to have people hawked in and thrown in on the people of Meath this way. I would like to know if it is the intention of the Land Commission to ply all Meath with migrants. 

"They are coming in such numbers that they are scrooging out the people of Meath who have just claims for allotments of land, evicted tenants, and others of that kind. The Meath people are being shoved out and the others are getting allotments of land."

The flight east organised by the Land Commission reflects the thinking of the time and for much of the last century. 

Westward Ho?

But now, with the greater Dublin area creaking for want of services, a case can be made that there should be a concentrated effort to repopulate the west, balancing out development and population increases.

Seamus Boland, CEO of Irish Rural Link, believes that the fall-out from the last recession has exacerbated the divide between the prosperous east and large tracts of rural Ireland.

“We have, since that recession, as a country invested a lot of energy to keep the buzz going in Dublin,” he said. 

“There have been some initiatives such as the current one that funds small towns and villages and it is making them look better, but we either accept that the IDA can’t attract big industry to rural Ireland or we find somebody who can do something in that respect.” 

Boland does accept that major companies like Intel are unlikely to head off into the west but he also feels that any talk of decentralisation of government agencies and departments is missing the point.

“I’m taking about encouraging job transfers, creating zones that make it more attractive as we have done in the past with mixed success, but being proactive about it. 

"We have for a long time now focused on the east and it’s becoming clear that if we continue like that there won’t be teachers up there, there won’t be nurses, because they simply can’t afford to live in Dublin.” 

An unbalanced State in terms of economic activity, and by extension, population, is one of the major issues to arise from the census figures. 

Ageing population

Another is the age profile of the population.

Between 2016 and 2022 the State’s population increased by 387,274. Out of these natural increases, the number of births over deaths accounted for 167,487 while net migration was 219,787. 

The highest increase in population was among the over 70s, which increased by 26%, while there was a 4% fall in the numbers of people aged between 25 and 39. 

The average age was 38.8, up from 37.4 in 2016 and 36.1 in 2011. Going back further, the average age in 2000 was 31.8 while back in 1980 the average age of Irish people was 26.3.

Quite obviously, this country has an ageing population which is going to give rise to all sorts of issues, primarily pensions, and healthcare. “The Census results are really useful,” says Celine Clarke, head of advocacy and public affairs at Age Action, the agency for older people. 

“We now know there are over one million people who are aged over 60 so what the current results say is that there is an opportunity for the government to really plan for us all to age with dignity.” 

We asked "What was the average age of the population in 2022?"
38.8 years is the answer contained in today's Census of Population 2022 Summary Results. https://t.co/82LLqfNo1l#CSOIreland #Ireland #Census #Census2022 #CensusIreland #Population pic.twitter.com/RZQN8blkZU

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) May 30, 2023

This week’s results also highlighted the medical needs that are accruing with an ageing population. The number of unpaid carers has increased by 53% from 2016 to over 299,000. The number of hours of unpaid care provided each week increased by 111%, with the largest increase among persons providing care for 43 hours or more per week. 

And the age group most likely to be providing unpaid care were those between 50 and 59. All of these trends highlight that long-term planning is desperately required if we are to meet the needs of an ageing population.

The other issue that requires addressing is pensions. During the general election of 2020, the issue over the raising of the age of eligabilty became a hot potato. Since then politics has ensured that it is off the table. 

Some economists still maintain that the age will have to increase in line with a smaller ratio of working people and the extension of life expectancy. But if that route is not followed then further taxes will have to pay for the growing pensions bill.

Celine Clarke says that flexibility is the key for most people in terms of when they retire. “People have an entitlement to eligibility at 66,” she says.

“Cleaners, labourers, long-distance drivers, people like that have worked hard for a long time. Others may want to work until they are older and that should be possible. Mandatory retirement contracts should be removed and we must ensure that the work environment is age-positive. There is a lot that structurally needs to be addressed.” 

The question now remains whether these issues will be addressed with the growing urgency that is required. The Census has provided a long-term map of what the future will look like. Now it is up to politicians to show that they are up to meeting the challenges