Aoife Moore: No-confidence motion not designed to remove Varadkar but to damage those around him

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, who is subject of a motion of no confidence next week. File picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

Sinn Féin has previous when it comes to lodging motions of no confidence against government ministers.

In the last Fine Gael government, Eoghan Murphy and Simon Harris both escaped from theirs unscathed, for the most part, saved by Fianna Fáil's confidence and supply deal.

Now, just five months into its term, the Government faces its first no-confidence motion, with Sinn Féin banging on the door again.

It goes without saying that no one really believes this vote against Leo Varadkar will win.

The Government's large majority will see to that, notwithstanding that it is written into the programme for government that Coalition TDs will be whipped to vote on such matters.

It is far more likely that Sinn Féin's ultimate plan is to damage everyone else in the Government, while reminding the public what Mr Varadkar did.

Like the last government, it was Fianna Fáil who was called on to explain why they did not think the housing and health crises were bad enough to pull down the Government, and Tuesday's debate will carry on very much in the same vein.

Fianna Fáil currently looks at polling in the late teens as aspirational, and the Green Party is losing members hand-over-fist. Neither stands to gain anything from an election and will vote in favour of the Tánaiste, despite many backbenchers' outrage at the behaviour in question.

Fine Gael and the Tánaiste, for the most part, have responded as expected. They say that this no-confidence motion is political pageantry and a distraction from Sinn Féin's latest embarrassment in the North, which saw officials and elected reps manage to completely overlook the thousands of pounds resting in their accounts.

They are right, of course — but this line of argument in itself is a minefield for Mr Varadkar.

Using the payment scandal as a defence only serves to highlight the fact that those involved in the fiasco were forced to resign.

The Sinn Féin statement was carefully written, making mention of "the fact that the Tánaiste has faced no sanction" and that "this motion will allow the Dáil to say to the people that no one is above being held to account and that there are consequences when you act as Leo Vardakar has done".

Mary Lou McDonald has, as the Taoiseach said, put herself on "the moral high ground", but with Catherine Kelly and Elisha McCallion's political careers in tatters, she obviously feels comfortable where she is.

Any argument the Government puts forward can be swiftly batted back that those involved with Sinn Féin's money controversy are no longer in a job, while Mr Varadkar did not get as much as a slap on the wrist and, regardless, slapping Mr Varadkar's wrists is only part of the point.

Sinn Féin knows that whipped backbenchers voting in favour of a Tánaiste who admitted he did wrong will stir division in their ranks and further alienate people looking for change in Leinster House.

It is likely the biggest losers in this vote will be Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, and that might be exactly the point.