Number of Covid deaths could near 1,000 for January, Nphet warns

Yesterday, there were 1,943 Covid-patients in hospital, including 214 in ICU with 105 new admittances in the last 24 hours

The number of deaths from Covid-19 for January could near 1,000 by the end of the month, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned. 

A further 51 people have died from Covid-19 in January and an additional 2,608 people now have the virus, bringing the total to 181,922 confirmed cases since the pandemic began.

There have been 2,828 deaths.

Yesterday, there were 1,943 Covid-patients in hospital, including 214 in ICU with 105 new admittances in the last 24 hours.

The 14-day incidence rate of infection per 100,000 of population has dropped slightly to 1,140.7, but is still among the highest in Europe.

Munster continues to be seriously affected with an extremely higher rate of infection in Waterford at 1,582.1, Limerick at 1,450.5, and Cork at 1,212 per 100,000.

In chief medical officer Tony Holohan’s latest letter to the health minister, he predicted a rise in mortality to possibly 1,000 deaths this month. Last night, he confirmed this estimate with a sombre nod.

The letter said: "Given the large number of recently notified outbreaks in long term residential care facilities and hospitals, we can, unfortunately, expect to see, in addition, a large scale of mortality in these settings.

"It is therefore anticipated that a total of at least 500-1,000 deaths may occur in the month of January."

Tony Holohan, chief medical officer, said at least 500-1,000 deaths may occur in January.

In the same letter, he estimated two of five positive cases are not caught with PCR testing alone.

But last night he declined to say whether he would like to see hotel quarantine on arrival to Ireland brought in to reduce that risk.

Instead, he said: “It is an argument for not travelling.” 

He called on anyone who is considering booking a holiday abroad to reconsider and referred to advertising for cheap flights as “not particularly responsible” without naming any companies.

He called on the public to keep following the guidelines while admitting it is extremely difficult.

“We all got into it with gusto back in the springtime, we thought it would be a few weeks of this and it has not turned out this way.

“As we move into vaccinations we know we have hope, but we know we will have restrictions for a considerable length of time,” he said.

The most recent sample testing for the UK variant here found a 60% presence. They have not found the Brazilian variant here and just three cases from South Africa.

Chair of the Nphet Epidemiological Modelling Group Philip Nolan said the impact of the higher numbers earlier this month looks set to continue.

“There will be a large number of deaths over the coming weeks, we have achieved something here but there is a long way to go, it is going to get tougher on us,” he said.

Mr Nolan said the decreasing case numbers are a good sign. 

However, he cautioned: “The incidence is 10 to 15 times higher than we were seeing in early December and 200 times higher than what we were seeing in July.” 

Deputy chief medical officer Ronan Glynn said the 483 deaths up to Tuesday contained 55 in healthcare settings and 155 in all residential settings including 139 in nursing homes.

A pilot study on Covid-19 antibodies in hospital workers found 15% of staff at St James's Hospital were exposed to the virus, but just 4.1% in University Hospital Galway.

Karina Butler, chair of the National Immunisation Advisory Board, confirmed vials of the PfizerBioNTech vaccine give six doses, not five as predicted, increasing the numbers who can benefit.