Covid-19: Public began modifying behaviour before Level 5 restrictions introduced

Professor Philip Nolan.

The chair of the Nphet Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan has said that the public began modifying their behaviour seven to 10 days before Level 5 restrictions were introduced because “the public realised we were in trouble.” 

Level 3 restrictions had helped stabilise figures, he told RTÉ radio’s News at One, but those measures did not bring about a reduction in cases, that had come about because of Level 5.

“The Reproductive (R) number is now below one and we believe it is decreasing” he added. 

Decreasing Covid numbers were a “testament to the collective actions that we've all made.” 

Each case of Covid had infected fewer than one other person, he said. A closer examination of the data had highlighted that the number of close contacts for each person had been decreasing since September.

The number of cases in Dublin was decreasing now, it was not unusual for outbreaks to be resistant in a capital city given the population density, he explained. 

“People are doing what needs to be done.” It was important to get the level of the virus down “as low as we possibly can”. Beyond December 1 it would be important to ensure that the country continued to manage transmission of the virus.

The European Centre for Disease Control would advise Nphet what the high and low-level risk situations would be.

Prof Nolan said it was important to contain high-risk indoor gatherings to “choke the virus.”