Simon Coveney the favourite to succeed Phil Hogan as EU trade commissioner

Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney: Favourite to replace Phil Hogan as Ireland’s EU Commissioner, should a vacancy arise. Picture: Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney is the favourite to replace Phil Hogan as Ireland’s EU Commissioner.

It had been made clear that in the event of Mr Hogan's resignation, or sacking by Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission president, Fine Gael will retain the right to nominate his successor.

Mr Hogan resigned this evening tendering his resignation to Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.

Senior Government sources have made it clear that Fianna Fáil will have the right to nominate Ireland’s next Commissioner proper in 2024 if the Coalition is still in office.

Dublin has made it known to Brussels that it would be keen to retain the trade portfolio and for that to happen a person of sufficient stature and credibility would have to be proposed.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar is not in line for the post as he due to retake the post of Taoiseach in 2022 and Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has just won the presidency of the Eurogroup, thereby ruling him out.

“It would have to be a prime minister or deputy prime minister or very senior minister who is well-known and regarded in Brussels. It won’t be Leo as he wants to be Taoiseach again so the only person who really has that sort of clout is Coveney,” said one minister.

Phil Hogan. Picture: Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

Several government sources have also pointed to Mr Coveney’s reduced status in the new administration as a possible motivation for him accepting such a move.

“He was the man on Brexit for more than two years. Now, he is no longer Tánaiste so he is now the third most important Irish figure when it comes to Brexit. It is a crowded pitch and he is looking somewhat lost,” said one of his ministerial colleagues.

Attempts to get a comment from Mr Coveney’s office were unsuccessful.

Mr Coveney’s solid handling of Brexit won him many admirers in Ireland and in Brussels and he enjoys a good working relationship with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

It is believed Mr Coveney would only be interested in moving to Brussels as commissioner if it was to be in the trade portfolio.

Minister of State for European Affairs Thomas Byrne said that it is possible for Ireland to retain the trade portfolio if the right person was put forward.

“It would depend on the person we put forward. If we were to put a person of a suitable calibre forward, that might very well happen, but that is a matter for the EU Commission president,” he said.

He said that it was important that public support for the European Union was not jeopardised by a commissioner being seen to flout the rules. 

The Irish politicians who had attended the event had lost their positions if Mr Hogan had been a politician in Ireland he would have lost his job, said Mr Byrne.

It was clear that the Commissioner had breached public health guidelines, but it was a decision for Ms von der Leyen to make. He said he had no doubt that public confidence would be “massively undermined” if it was perceived that politicians could flout the rules.

Former Irish Ambassador Bobby McDonagh warned against Mr Hogan being removed from his position.

“I fully share the anger at the foolishness at those who attended the dinner. His portfolio is a substantial one for Europe and Ireland and not every commissioner gets such a meaty portfolio,” he said.