Ronan O'Gara: Why Ireland’s No 10 dilemma matters ahead of Springboks test and Six Nations
SLIDING DOORS: Ireland's out halves Sam Prendergast and Jack Crowley swap roles during the second half of last week's win over Australia at the Aviva Stadium. Pic: Seb Daly/Sportsfile
THIS ONE ain’t going to be an easy needle to thread. It isn’t even that I’m scribbling some thoughts in advance of Ireland’s team confirmation for Saturday’s key autumn test against the world champion Springboks.
Even with the team in hand, there are zero absolutes now in the debate over who has rightful ownership of Ireland’s ten jersey.
I hear Ireland are starting with Sam Prendergast. I would have gone with Jack Crowley from the get-go. But in either scenario, I’m not sure you can draw a straight line between this selection and the first game of the Six Nations away to France next spring.
This is a complex, multi-layered conversation. If Ireland’s primary concern was defensive vulnerability against South Africa, one might be inclined to select Crowley. Maybe it’s not. I think there is a huge performance in the offing from Andy Farrell’s side and they want Prendergast to set the tone, put boot to ball, to put his side on the front foot. Maybe management’s pre-eminent consideration is getting the World Cup 2027 cycle right and if so, it’s good to get on board with that. But all this is somewhat complicated by Prendergast’s defensive fallibility last week against the Wallabies.
In any bout of kick tennis, if and when the Ireland ten kicks up field, normally the full back chases and contests. Prendergast holds in the backfield but South Africa may not engage with him in any back and forth – Tony Browne may have the Boks attacking on the fringes, hoping to put a mismatch on Prendergast.
Every team will go after the ten if they believe there’s better yardage than running into a hulking back row or an Aki, even at Ringrose. Last Saturday Prendergast missed tackles against Australia that would be considerably more problematic if they were Springbok backs like Cheslin Kolbe or Damian Willemse.
Sam has a longer spiral, he’s more in tune with the ball than Jack is right now, his familiarity with the Leinster lads means he possibly looks sharper in attack. But in a cat and mouse situation this time, when the terms and conditions may be shaped by the need for a third centre and defending the gain line, the Munster man is definitely more solid.
In the broadest terms, the offensive advantages of any out half are going to be set against his defensive liabilities. It’s winter cold now in Dublin, an evening kick off means the ball will get wet and slippy. This isn’t the Highveld and a lot of the small margins are dictated by box kicks and scraps.
It’s increasingly rare you catch a ball cleanly now in rugby, even with the escort rules, so a lot of wingers and back rows are tapping the ball back, some bouncing favourably, others not. That’s a trained skill. Felix Jones (because of his own playing position) made that an area of interest and of gains for South Africa, but the Irish natural disposition for fielding a ball has made us a tough nut to crack. There may not be much of a win in this 80 for the Boks on that score.
South Africa might say they don’t mind what Ireland out half they will face – with a strategy for both – but they would prefer Prendergast to start, don’t be fooled. His defensive lapses are not a quick fix, they will take the bones of two years, with good coaching, to get him to a point where he is considered a finished number ten.
He has missed five of his 12 attempted tackles over the three autumn games to date. Crowley’s missed two 14. So is it okay – or for how long is it okay – to select your ten on the basis of the opposition? It might not be satisfactory, but is it wrong? I do it all the time, even if club and test rugby are very different. You’d hate that as the player, and as a coach you’d prefer to have a standout but right now Ireland don’t have an indisputable owner of the jersey.
Crowley has defended well for Munster against South African teams in the URC. When the Boks see Prendergast, they may target him with Jess Kriel but might also look at the metre or two inside (or outside) him to engage the outside centre or back row to reduce another number in the line. It’s more than a Sam problem – if De Allende or Kriel is running a hit line outside the ten, the inclination of the Ireland 12 is to protect Prendergast (or Jack).
If South Africa go out the back (because Bundee Aki has hit in to protect Prendergast), the Boks have a blindside winger on the inside of 10, a 15 outside of ten and an openside winger against Ireland’s full back. I’ve admired De Allende for a long time. Prendergast tends to ‘scrag' a player to ground at best in contact. I wasn’t the best defender, but I tried to tackle to get him down. That’s a key point.
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CROWLEY has issues too. Occasionally we are left wondering which version of Jack is showing up. The reason so many flip-flop on the two out half options – are there only two? – is easy, because there are readymade examples of inconsistency underlining both are works in progress. Compare the excellent Jack against France in Marseille in February of last year to the moderate displays this autumn. But Sam can’t close the door either, he’s left it open to Crowley with his defensive mishaps and the management to continue with their salt and pepper approach. At the tail end of 2025, there is nought wrong with that.
The clock isn't the problem – it’s that neither is grabbing the reins. If you are any way neutral in this, you have to see that that playing Prendergast, right now, could be quite dangerous. The step up from the Australia game to the world champions, where the trust among them is absolute, means that the minimum guarantee is Ireland will be tested both sides of the ball on Saturday and they’d better be ready.
That’s why Crowley is my call: if he started, and didn't do the business, the collateral damage is less. Is Sam starts, and it’s not good, it could be a recovery project for quite a few months, certainly up to the Six Nations. Prendergast was going on the Lions until round 4 of the Six Nations against France, remember.
I don’t see how or why Ciaran Frawley can be discounted from this convo. What if one of Jack or Sam does an ACL four months before a World Cup? Then you have Ciaran or Harry Byrne for a World Cup 23 who haven’t played test rugby in years. There are still games when you need to be playing your third and fourth choices but Ireland have never really done that.
Also, don’t underestimate the out half’s presence and impact on their team mates during the week in terms of bringing the best out of the people around them, setting and demanding standards and while that may be harder for Crowley with the blue hue, I think he is respected in that set-up. The November impact may count for more but the performance of Crowley against Leinster was excellent and instructive and sticks in my mind as a benchmark. .
I’m prepared to give him a pass on Soldier Field – he didn’t look the same person much less the same player against the All Blacks. The ten always looks worse when his team isn’t humming and he always looks better when his side is in the ascendancy. Ireland looked good last week, better than the previous two games, but they were really only on the money for 12-15 minutes all told against Australia. There is plenty of ceiling left there for the visit of the world’s best.
I think Andy Farrell got into them after Japan. We expected a reaction to the All Blacks against Japan and we didn’t get it. But if the Wallaby win wasn’t all-dancing, the good bits were around the intent of the Irish lads.
The oversized importance of the ten is evident too in the performances of the All Blacks this autumn minus Richie Mounga. It’s like the owner of a Formula One team without his favourite driver. Beauden Barrett and Damiene McKenzie are brilliant rugby players, but they are not brilliant tens. There is a marked difference - a great ten produces the goods when his team is under the pump, when everyone else is losing yards and losing their shit, he can stay composed and find a way, through will and strategy to bring his team back into the game.
There is always a huge autumn performance in Ireland. We haven’t seen one yet. They have a really good head coach who will have them emotionally and physically primed with a good game plan irrespective of who’s at ten. South Africa is a side that essentially runs itself and everyone wants a jersey. Ireland don’t have enough of fellas under pressure for their jersey.
At least in Crowley and Prendergast, we have that. You’d have a great out half if you could merge the pair of them.
