Irish Examiner view: Change is not always for the better

We might wish for autocratic regimes to collapse but when it does happen there is no guarantee that whatever replaces them will be more kind

A general view of the makeshift tents housing Palestinians and buildings destroyed in Israeli attacks on Gaza City. Picture:  Mahmoud Issa/Anadolu/Getty  

It is sometimes said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

The phrase, attributed to Mark Twain (he didn’t coin it), means that while historical events may not repeat exactly, there will be similar circumstances.

The rise of extreme nationalist movements deeply invested in a great leader has led to … well, we don’t have to tell you, in the same way we don’t have to tell you the current parallels.

Still, having just marked two major milestones — the 80th anniversary of the dropping of the first nuclear bomb and, closer to home, the 250th anniversary of the birth of Daniel O’Connell — we are entitled to wonder what, in fact, any of us are learning from it all.

Hiroshima taught us that nobody would win a nuclear war, and that once the genie is out of the bottle it is nigh impossible to put it back (despite the best efforts of the Irish-led nuclear non-proliferation treaty). That, and the obliteration of Japanese and German cities, will forever be a reminder that war is a pitiless, horrible thing, even when it’s waged against equally pitiless, horrible regimes. And yet humankind never seems to truly learn that lesson — aerial footage of Gaza show it to have been flattened like the cities of previous wars.

We will be picking over the crushing of Gaza for generations, asking ourselves how it came to this. 

Perhaps we will learn eventually. Perhaps only one of us needs to learn, given that O’Connell, despite his flaws as an individual, showed the power of one individual to drive positive change.

Among other things, his example teaches that it is possible to resist overwhelming odds through peaceful political means, even if the path is long and difficult. Such is, all too often it seems, something that can go alongside social progress and civil rights (including the abolition of slavery, which O’Connell was influential in), no matter how much benefit they bring in the long term. One may, it is true, have to take comfort in knowing that succeeding generations could be the ones to benefit most.

And while the study of history has, rightly, tended to move away from “the great man”, it is a reminder from our own past that an individual can achieve enormous things, even if nothing is ever in isolation. 

He galvanised all social classes in his drive for Catholic emancipation and the repeal of the Act of Union, even if he was unsuccessful in the latter. And yet, his mobilisation of great swathes of society is also a reminder that the greatest imperial power can be resisted and changed.

Apropos of nothing, in this vein one might take note how regularly autocratic regimes tend to collapse, either in on themselves through the weight of infighting or in the face of widespread resistance.

But, in keeping with history rhyming rather than repeating, the death of one regime is no guarantee that a kinder one will be born, or even that if it is it will endure. Democracy, like a dream of spring, is a fragile thing.

One hopes, in this case, that we won’t leave it to succeeding generations to clean up the mess.

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Ireland must protect farm incomes

Farmers, as we have noted on these pages previously — and indeed in special reports and in the weekly Irish Examiner Farming supplement — contributes an enormous amount to the country’s economic success.

It remains the case that they are caught between a rock and a hard place, in that their income is dependent on seasonal variations, including of the weather, while the sector as a whole is responsible for an outsized percentage of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions.

So while, to an outsider, a drop in the number of cattle might seem a positive from an environmental view, economically, alarm bells are ringing in the farming sector.

As reported in the most recent edition of 'Irish Examiner Farming', the national herd has shrunk by 276,000 cattle in 12 months, some 3.8%, with the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers’ Association (ICSA) saying it could double in the next year and should be “a wake-up call”.

It says government and EU policies, including changes to the common agricultural policy, are responsible, and that the decline “is not sustainable, and it signals real danger for the future of our family farms and rural economies”.

ICSA beef chairman John Cleary said: “If policymakers don’t act now to restore confidence and give farmers a reason to stay in business, the collapse of the national herd will become unstoppable, and, with it, the collapse of rural economies across the country.”

Meanwhile, ICSA president Sean McNamara said “farmers feel they have no voice and no protection” and feel “constantly punished rather than supported” in their dealings with the Department of Agriculture. The department, in response, says it “has the interests of farmers and farming in Ireland at its core”.

It is possible for both things to be true, whereby farmers feel without backing even as the Government attempts to support them. It is also true that looming changes to CAP payments are causing significant stress for farmers, because of their importance to maintaining the viability of some Irish farms. And yet, farmers are willing to embrace change, with dairy sector discussion groups highlighting that technology is helping farmers in that area to reduce emissions and still remain sustainable.

Naturally, the beef sector has a different set of challenges, but the point remains that where technological or economic solutions are available they are embraced — provided the farmers are given the right series of supports and encouragements.

Change is a daunting thing at any time, especially when faced with increasingly tight and changing regulations depending on the wider economic and political landscape. And with the global outlook for both murky at best — between climate collapse and the decline and fall of the American empire — it is all the more important to protect what jobs, industry, and incomes we can.