Mick Clifford: Will the presidency go back to pre-Robinson era as a retirement home for politicians?

When the dust clears, we will see whether we’re going to get a continuity Michael D presidency, or go back to the future when the president was often seen, but rarely heard

Heather Humphreys is weighed down with 14 years of government sins. She is constantly being invited to repent, but instead she insists she was never really there when the housing crisis went south. Picture: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

And then there were three. So was titled a 1978 album from the group Genesis after the fourth member of the band did a runner. 

That was released during an era when the office of the presidency of Ireland was considered a retirement home for politicians. The last president thus categorised, probably unfairly, was Paddy Hillary, who occupied the office from 1976 to 1990.

His departure was followed by the tenure of Mary Robinson. The question hanging over the current election is will the presidency go back to the future, to a time before Robbo transformed the office?

Maria Steen would have brought colour, tension and maybe a few fireworks to this election, but when nominations closed last Wednesday she hadn’t made the cut. And then there were three, the least number of candidates since 1990.

The field is wide open. None of the candidates is head and shoulders above the others. All have weak spots, and their weaknesses will be subjected to an unforgiving public glare. 

Jim Gavin has the most learning to do. He is new to this whole thing. Talk to sports hacks and they will tell you Jim’s general demeanor towards the media could be summed up in the countenance of a bulldog who had mistakenly licked urine from a nettle. 

Jim Gavin: The kind of public performance now required of him is one the vast majority of politicians learn over decades, starting out on local beats where they have plenty of room to make mistakes. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins

Now he's finding out that some of those sports reporters were somewhat restrained compared to their colleagues on the campaign trail in search of weakness and error.

To be fair, the kind of public performance now required of him is one the vast majority of politicians learn over decades, starting out on local beats where they have plenty of room to make mistakes.

He is travelling light though, compared to Heather Humphreys, who is weighed down with 14 years of government sins. She is constantly being invited to repent, but instead she insists she was never really there when the housing crisis went south. She was too busy giving out money to the afflicted and going back to her roots in opening credit unions.

Humphreys is enforced with a warm personality, the politician’s great ally. She could be accused of reaching for a better class of retirement home, considering she had effectively stepped down from politics before the party came calling after Mairead McGuinness pulled out.

You get the impression from Heather that the scones for the Áras afternoon tea parties will be personally baked and originate with a recipe handed down through generations of hardy Monaghan women.

Catherine Connolly is the outsider who has already made some waves for various comments on foreign matters, like Gaza, and Germany, and calling the USA “an imperial power”. In some ways, she appears to be canvassing to be elected leader of the relatively small far-left cohort in Irish politics, but time will tell whether she is striking any chords outside that cabal.

Catherine Connolly has a quiet authority and knows her way around the Constitution. Picture: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

She does have a quiet authority and knows her way around the Constitution. She has a deep-seated desire to see a united Ireland, going a long way back, at least as far as last week when Sinn Féin came aboard her campaign.

On the face of it, the configuration of this contest mirrors that from 1990. Robinson was an independent candidate of the left. Austin Currie flew the Fine Gael flag, with a northern tone, just like Heather Humphreys through her Protestant faith. And Fianna Fáil was represented by the favourite, Brian Lenihan Snr, who unlike Jim Gavin had never managed Dublin, but he had played amateur soccer for Ireland.

That election was won on transfers. On the first count, Lenihan had 694,484 votes, more than 82,000 ahead of second placed Robinson. Currie’s elimination flipped the result in Robinson’s favour, garnering her a total of 817,830, over 46,000 more than Lenihan.

Those were the days of the two-and-a half-party system. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were arch rivals, and between them garnered up to 80% of national polls. It was inevitable Currie would transfer in far greater numbers to Robinson than Lenihan.

Today, all has changed. The civil war rivalry has belatedly come to an end. The former big two need each other to govern. As such, it is almost certain that if Gavin or Humphreys goes out first, transfers will put the other over the line.

That is, unless Connolly has a big enough lead on the first court to resist the onslaught of transfers. Such an outcome will only be achieved if she has a really good campaign.

When the dust clears we will see whether we’re going to get a continuity Michael D presidency, or go back to the future. Neither Jim Gavin nor Heather Humphreys are likely to irk the government in any form, or to talk out of line, or to explore any elasticity in the constitutional interpretation of the office. 

In that respect, the office may well go back to the pre-Robbo days, when Genesis were in their pomp and the president was often seen, but rarely heard.