Democrats can win in 2026 — if they stop the self-doubt and fight Trump’s authoritarian threats

Kamala Harris’s decision not to run for California governor offers Democrats a clearer path to confront Trump’s growing threat

In the months after Kamala Harris's electoral loss some Democrats and many commentators have been busy with self-flagellation, doom, and gloom. Photo: Joshua Lott/Getty Images

Last week’s statement from Kamala Harris, former vice president and Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, was brief and to the point.

“In recent months, I have given serious thought to asking the people of California for the privilege to serve as their governor. I love this state, its people, and its promise. It is my home.

“But after deep reflection, I’ve decided that I will not run for governor in this election. For now, my leadership — and public service — will not be in elected office.”

If you listened closely, you might have heard the sigh of relief, not just from Democrats but from many independents across the US. It was not just that Harris, justly or unjustly pilloried for her loss to Donald Trump, will not be standing. 

It was that, with headline distractions about a 2028 presidential candidate out of the way, the Democratic Party and America might focus on the important issues at hand: the threat of Trump and his inner circle not just to the economy and to rights but to the future of the US system.

Former US President Joe Biden (left) and Kamala Harris in January. After a promising start to the emergency Harris campaign, following the belated withdrawal of Joe Biden, The Democrats gave up the narrative on key issues — notably the economy and immigration — to Trump and his acolytes. File photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

In the months after electoral failure, some Democrats and many commentators have been busy with self-flagellation, doom, and gloom. The party has not only lost its way, but is in danger of putting itself on the political margins, they say. Democrats have not only lost the working class but are losing Hispanics and young constituents.

Some of the critique is merited. The party failed badly in its communications in autumn 2024. After a promising start to the emergency Harris campaign, following the belated withdrawal of Joe Biden, it gave up the narrative on key issues — notably the economy and immigration — to Trump and his acolytes. 

Harris’s performance in the sole debate was not enough to overtake the spectacle of Trump’s lies, distortions, and craziness. That failure was replicated in key congressional races. 

So Democrats not only lost the White House, they failed to regain either the house or the senate. The Trumpists now dominated not only the executive but also the legislature and, through previous judicial appointments, the supreme court.

US President Donald Trump. Harris’s performance in the sole debate was not enough to overtake the spectacle of Trump’s lies, distortions, and craziness. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

But much of the hand-wringing has been misleading. One of its themes is that the Democrats, controlled by the “radical left”, gave up on the economy and immigration by focusing on marginal cultural issues.

The “radical left” label is nonsense. For 50 years, Biden was an exemplar of centrist politics. Harris had tacked sharply away from the progressive image in her 2020 presidential run. Tim Walz, her vice presidential pick, was liked by progressives but is still a pragmatic centrist.

The Democrat Party's most active campaigners on key economic issues, following the 2024 debacle, have been progressives such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (pictured), Bernie Sanders, and Gretchen Whitmer, along with centrists such as former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The Democratic national committee was firmly in the grips of the centre, so much so that it was being criticised for being too cautious in its approach and messaging. 

In contrast, the most active campaigners on key economic issues, following the 2024 debacle, have been progressives such as Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Gretchen Whitmer, along with centrists such as former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel.

The snipe at cultural issues is more of a call for Democrats to tone down and even set aside attention to rights. It rests on a caricature that activists are obsessed with pronouns and self-identification.

In fact, at a time when the Trump administration is dismantling women’s rights, rallying for those rights — including reproductive rights — is needed more than ever. As Trump and Co. try to erase transgender people, a pride in LGBT+ rights is not a black mark or a scarlet letter. 

When migrants and asylum seekers are being rounded up and disappeared in foreign prisons, discussions of race, ethnicity, and America are needed more than ever.

The Democrats have talent across the political spectrum such as Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer. Photo: Leah Farrell / © RollingNews.ie

The hand-wringers have highlighted a poll with a “favourable” rating of the Democrats of 28%, its lowest mark since 1992. But they haven’t considered that the rating could be effect rather than cause, given the pervasive, misleading “attack” narratives of Trumpists that are amplified by media.

Nor have they noted that much of the disquiet around the Democrats is that they are “weak” and “ineffective” — in other words, not speaking out on issues include those concerning rights.

Democrat advantage

FAR from being down and out, Democrats have regained the advantage in party affiliation for the first time since 2022, with 46% of Americans identifying as Democrats or independent-leaning Democratic versus 43% who identify as Republican or Republican-leaning.

Moreover, in surveys about the 2026 mid-term elections, the Democrats consistently hold an edge of around 3% over the GOP.

That Democrat edge is likely to widen as the economic downturn, fed by tariff chaos and the Trump administration’s “chainsaw” to the US system, takes hold in the coming months.

Beyond superficial commentary about “left” and “centre”, the obvious and productive line is that this is not one way or the other: the Democratic Party, like any concerned activist, can seek a way forward on the economy, immigration, and rights.

Jon Ossoff is another talent within the Democrats who can help the party. Photo: AP/Branden Camp

They have talent across the political spectrum: governors such as Whitmer of Michigan, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland; senators such as Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Jon Ossoff of Georgia, and Bernie Sanders of Vermont; representatives including Ocasio-Cortez, Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Melanie Stansbury of New Mexico and Jamie Raskin of Maryland; and the ground troops at state and local level.

Most importantly, they have a cause that needs to break through the doom-and-gloom, the Trumpian chaos, and the white noise across social media. 

The US system is at risk of not just being bent but broken by an administration seeking authoritarian power, from the disregard and abuse of law and the constitution to the falsification of reality and the never-ending assault on “enemies”.

Josh Shapiro and other Democrats have a cause that needs to break through the doom-and-gloom, the Trumpian chaos, and the white noise across social media. Photo: AP/Matt Rourke

The late John Lewis, a civil rights icon who served 34 years in congress, famously said: “We must be the change we wish to see in the world”. 

But he also cautioned that there would be those who would say the contest was lost. There would be those who would say, in the face of adversity, that it would be better to quiet down about rights and justice.

His advice? “Never, ever be afraid to make some noise and get in good trouble, necessary trouble.”

• Scott Lucas is professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin; professor emeritus of international politics at the University of Birmingham; and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView.