Maresa Fagan: Exit out of lockdown in jeopardy as mask begins to slip

Pictured is a man wearing a face mask in Dublin city centre, as he passes a sign in a retailer window urging people to wear masks when entering the shop. Photo: Leah Farrell/Rollingnews.ie

Plans to exit out of Lockdown 2.0 and partially reopen the economy for Christmas could be in jeopardy if a rise in case numbers, observed in recent days, continues this week.

In the early part of last week, there appeared to be cause for celebration as daily cases numbers fell to their lowest level since late September.

In October, the country had braced itself for six weeks of lockdown in a bid to stem rising Covid-19 numbers that were exceeding 1,000 per day.

In the first week of the new restrictions, more than 6,500 cases were confirmed and the infection rate was above 300 cases per 100,000 population.

Within the space of two weeks, the Level 5 restrictions appeared to be working. The number of cases confirmed in week three fell to just under 3,000, representing a halving of the national infection rate.

The daily case numbers fell steadily from four-digit figures in mid-October to 270 last week.

As the week wore on, however, that promising picture began to change.

Instead of a continued decline, we began to see the number of new infections creep up again, rising above 300 and approaching 500 new cases per day by the weekend.

There is also concern that the number of hospitalisations due to Covid-19 remains relatively unchanged, with 276 people in hospital and 30 in intensive care on Monday.

The number of deaths has been creeping upwards since the second Covid-19 wave took hold, with 188 deaths confirmed since the beginning of October.

Public health officials have warned of the risk of squandering the gains made in recent weeks unless we steady our nerve and stay the course.

The goal of Lockdown 2.0 was to reach a reproductive number of 0.5 and get case numbers down to less than 100 per day.

Members of the Gardai at a checkpoint on O'Connell Street during the Coronavirus Covid 19 pandemic in Dublin's city centre.

It looked like we were on the way towards that goal until something changed.

Was it pandemic fatigue borne out weariness from sticking with the public health rules? And when did the mask begin to slip?

There is a lead-in time from Covid-19 being seeded in the community to being spread and confirmed as infections. 

Does this suggest we began to ease off the pedal as soon as there were signs of falling infection levels in previous weeks?

The scenes of drinking and revelry on the streets of Dublin and Cork over the weekend will have angered many, in particular, those hardest hit by Covid-19.

Cork GP Mary Favier, a member of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), said the scenes were “demoralising” for those who had spent months on the frontline and urged caution in the weeks ahead.

But the scenes have also irked the shuttered businesses and their employees, who long to open their doors again, and will exasperate the thousands who have contracted the virus, as well as the families of the almost 2,000 people who have died to date.

In some sense, the street scenes capture the frustrations felt by us all. The ‘stay at home’ advisory has placed significant limitations on our personal freedoms.

While most of us are now well accustomed to wearing masks, sanitising our hands, and keeping two metres apart, the hardest part of Lockdown 2.0 is not seeing family and friends.

Covid-19 is testing all our resolve but we cannot afford to lose our sense of solidarity now. There is too much at stake.

Any chance of having any sort of Christmas with family and friends will vanish unless we stem the Covid-19 tide now.

The days of socialising and dining out will come again but not before we crush the curve and not before Christmas if we lose heart now.