Taoiseach bloodied but unbowed

IMPERVIOUS to polls and pundits Taoiseach Brian Cowen is determined to stagger into the General Election as leader of his party.

The rank and file among the soldiers of destiny are resigned to a resounding defeat at the ballot box.

But their leader, bloodied but unbowed, has raised his sword, stood up to the mutineers for a final time and committed to contesting the election as Taoiseach and president of Fianna Fáil.

He has until Tuesday, and the gathering of his parliamentary party, to find out if they are prepared to fight with him or force him to step down.

Brought to the brink of resignation last Thursday this face-off will sort out the immediate electorate strategy for FF and end speculation until the vote. He needs 36 TDs to support him in a secret ballot, after he threw away the rule book to hold a vote in confidence in himself.

But Mr Cowen did not pick this fight lightly and will have done the numbers. He believes he has enough support to succeed.

If the rival camps of Brian Lenihan and Micheál Martin can be split and one encouraged to back him he would stay on.

Mr Cowen spent three days sounding out his allies and enemies. Initially it appeared the consensus was that he would stand down for the sake of the party he loves. But people, those closest to him, got to him. He has been advised, however wisely, to stay.

He has played a clever holding game.

Buying time throughout the weekend boosted his position, unnerved critics and painted his rivals in a cowardly light.

Letting the word get out that he would go willingly on Thursday morning temporarily put Mr Cowen’s opponents in a comfort zone when they should have been plotting a strategy. By the time he volunteered to address the matter head-on at the parliamentary party meeting, he was the only senior figure who turned up for the battle.

Throughout last year he approached these confrontations with a sense of righteousness and defensiveness.

On Thursday he was calm and conciliatory. It unsettled some people and left his detractors exposed.

The Taoiseach can only hope the rump remain as lonely when events progress today and tomorrow.

The fact Mr Cowen has fought this battle so many times plays in his favour.

His backbench opponents have become tired figures parroting the same lines about his persona and communications’ strategy.

Sean Power, Tom Kitt, Noel O’Flynn and Michael Kennedy have been shouting about him for a year but this has failed to turn into a chorus.

The attitude to them can be summed up by Mr Cowen’s put down of the dissenter, John McGuinness.

He told Mr McGuinness he knew well what he thought and Mr McGuinness was equally well aware what Mr Cowen thought about him.

The fight to unseat the Taoiseach needed a new figurehead and the defection of one of the senior lieutenants was required.

However, this was slow in coming. Ministers Micheál Martin, Mary Hanafin and Brian Lenihan privately may have indicated it was time for him to go but in public he remained undisputed leader while the consultation was taking place.

This was critical for windy backbenchers, already afraid of losing their seats. They could not be left publicly isolated and paraded as backing a beaten docket.

Mr Cowen knows the vagaries of constituency life and how to curry favour, particularly with very difficult decisions to be made on electoral issues in the coming weeks.

However Mr Martin is equally conscious of the importance of the grassroots and will not act without knowing where they stand and what they need.

However, if all his colleagues believe he’s prepared for a fight but chickened out until the Taoiseach called his bluff it could be a death knell to his hopes to win any vote before or after Fianna Fáil is defeated in the General Election.