Last month the warmest October on record with 2026 on course to be second-warmest year

The wreckage of a Second World War German warship, one of dozens sunk by retreating Nazi forces in September 1944, emerges from the low waters of the Danube River in Serbia as drought and prolonged hot and dry weather lowered water levels during the summer. Last month, the 'exceptionally low river flows' persisted across Europe, including the Danube, Vistula, and the Rhine. Photo: Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images

Last month was the warmest October on record, with temperatures exceeding 1.5C for a third time in a row, according to a new report.

The average global surface air temperature was 1.75C above pre-industrial levels, reaching 15.35C.

The latest Copernicus weather report from the European Weather Agency said the average temperatures for the year are “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. 

It said the predicted range will be between 1.56C to 1.61C, which would make 2026 the second calendar year to exceed 1.5C after 2025.

It also warned that this year is most likely to be the second-warmest on record, with about an 80% probability, and a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024 — which is currently the warmest year on record.

Looking at average temperatures across Europe, it sat at 11.51C for the month of October — this was 1.49C above the 1991-2020 average. This makes it the second-warmest October on record, behind 2022.

There were also “exceptionally low river flows” which persisted across Europe, including the Danube, Vistula, and the Rhine.

Looking at sea surface temperatures, Copernicus says they remained “exceptionally high” in October. 

The average temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95C, which is the highest on record for the month. This surpassed the previous October record set in 2023.

Then in the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions continue to intensify, the monthly sea surface temperature reached an all-time high average of 29.94. This exceeded that reached during the peaks of previous very strong El Niño events.

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