Group says airline slots could see Dublin Airport cap breached by 10 million people

The figure of 32m was first suggested in the planning permission delivered for Dublin Airport’s second terminal in 2007

The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has been accused of allocating airline ‘slots’ that could see Dublin Airport’s 32m annual passenger cap breached by nearly 10m people.

St Margaret’s The Ward Residents Group (SMTW), a local organisation clashing with Dublin Airport administrator Daa for some time regarding night time flights and paths, claimed winter slots allocated by the IAA will see 9.6m additional travellers using the airport over the next 12 months.

Earlier this month the IAA published its draft decision for the winter slots available to Dublin Airport. This is a function the IAA performs twice a year, for the summer and winter months.

The IAA proposed a seat capacity limit of 14.4m for the winter months of November 2024 thru March 2025, with the assumption being that airplane loads would run at 81% of capacity for that period.

However, SMTW have claimed in a submission that the slot allocation would equate to an overall seat allocation of 41.6m for the entire summer and winter periods.

This figure was calculated using the figures published by Daa on its investor relations website, which state that 11.73m passengers flew to and from Dublin Airport during the winter months between 2023 and 2024, with IAA expecting passenger totals during those months to account for 34.7% of passenger traffic through the airport for a full year.

SMTW said that 9.6m additional passenger seats were to be made available via the draft plan, with the IAA “expecting the Daa and airlines not to use them”.

“The airlines and Daa are going to take full advantage of the additional seats being made available by the slot coordinator,” it said.

In its draft decision, the IAA said that it had developed its “own estimate of an appropriate seat cap parameter” for winter 2024, one based “on an objective analysis of the possibilities of accommodating the air traffic” subject to the annual constraint of 32m.

It added that “it is not for the IAA to decide on the precise meaning and effect of ambiguous or disputed planning conditions, or what constitutes a material deviation from such conditions”.

A spokesperson for the IAA said that is “now considering the responses received before we make a final decision on capacity for the winter 2024/45 season”.

Daa however said that the estimates of the SMTW group “are wrong”.

“Regrettably, growth will be restricted at the nation’s key gateway pending a planning decision on Daa’s infrastructure application submitted to Fingal County Council last December to grow to 40 million passengers a year,” a spokesperson said.

The figure of 32m was first suggested in the planning permission delivered for Dublin Airport’s second terminal in 2007. That cap is seen by some stakeholders as stunting Dublin Airport’s growth in terms of the number of flights it can carry.

A decision on Daa’s application to raise the cap to 40m is meanwhile not expected to be delivered before 2025.

Daa has said that the airport had stayed within the limit in 2023 by a slim margin, with 31.9 passengers noted - however, its own investor relations figures showed a figure of 33.5m passengers for the full year.

That discrepancy has its origins in Daa’s contention that ‘transit’ passengers such as those who do not exit an aircraft or those accessing connecting flights should not be counted twice in official figures.