Ireland on track for fewer than 100 cases per day by December 1, says health chief

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group. File picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

The chair of Nphet’s modelling advisory group has said Ireland is on track to have fewer than 100 cases of Covid-19 a day by December 1.

Professor Philip Nolan said that we are in a “very different position now” then when the Level 5 restrictions began.

He also stated that R number is now close to 0.5.

Writing on social media, Prof Nolan said: “When we started this phase of our Covid-19 response three weeks ago, we could not be certain that we, collectively, would get where we are today: R safely less than 1.0 and close to 0.5; daily case numbers less than 400 and decreasing at -5% to -7% per day.

“Three weeks ago we were reporting 1200 cases per day, growing exponentially at 5%-8% per day, and were probably 2-3 weeks away from our health system being overwhelmed.

“We are in a very different position now. We’ve shown what we can achieve, and the next three weeks will make all the difference.

 

“If we keep it up, we will have fewer than 100 cases per day by 1 December, and a brighter future.” 

Prof Nolan’s comments come as 395 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed on Thursday, with one additional death.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan warned that “not every part of the country has experienced the same reductions in disease incidence”.

He said: “For example, Donegal’s 14- day incidence is at 281 per 100,000, compared to the national average of 135 per 100,000.

“The country as a whole can succeed in suppressing this disease to low levels in the coming weeks.

“We have achieved a great deal of suppression over the Level 5 period, the coming weeks offer us an opportunity to drive transmission down further.” 

Meanwhile, the Tánaiste’s warning that people should not book flights home for Christmas has left families devastated.

However, medical officials backed Leo Varadkar's comments, classing flights home for Christmas as "non-essential travel".

Chief medical officer, Dr Tony Holohan, said he "fully understands" people's disappointment and, indeed, the impact on the aviation sector, but added that “the fact is that unnecessary travel represents an unnecessary risk”.