Q&A: Why is the government rejecting Nphet advice?

 Picture: Sam Boal/RollingNews.ie

The decision of the Government to reject the demand from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) is a significant move and represents the first major rebuff of public health advice.

“The relationship between Nphet and Government has changed forever,” said one government minister. Yet, to move 24 counties to level 3 in line with Dublin and Donegal is seen as a proportionate response by government.

A number of questions arise from the events of the past 48 hours:

Q: Just why did Nphet feel the need to recommend a move to level 5 on Sunday when they stopped short of moving to level 3 just three days earlier?

A: It is clear Nphet felt the sharp increase in hospitalisations over the weekend was of sufficient concern to merit the recommendation. It warned of a “significant and deteriorating” epidemiological situation.

“Nphet advises that it is vital to do everything in our power now to arrest the current trajectory nationally and suppress the virus back down to a low level of transmission in advance of the winter months,” the letter stated.

Q: For many months, Government has said it was acting to the letter of the advice of Nphet. Why did that change this time?

A: It was clear the Nphet decision on Sunday caught the government off guard and there was palpable anger among ministers as to how the news emerged. Many people within government felt the recommendation was not in proportion to the cost of locking down the country again. Government sources said such a move would have “completely undermined” next week’s budget.

Q: What significance can be placed on the fact Dr Tony Holohan returned to work a day early?

A: Several Government ministers did point to the presence of Dr Holohan as a factor in the change of position from Nphet between Thursday and Sunday.

Q: How significant is the decision of Government to break from Nphet’s advice?

A: It is highly significant. Up to now, Government has stuck rigidly, by and large, to the public health advice, despite criticism from the business community, the aviation sector and economists. Nphet is tasked with its public health mandate, but the government is clearly now having to consider the wider economic implications.

Q: So just what did the Government decide?

A: What was abundantly clear yesterday is that a move to level 5 was deemed to be completely unacceptable by Taoiseach Micheál Maritn, his Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green leader Eamon Ryan.

Ministers decided to move the entire country to level 3 with an emphasis on greater enforcement, personal responsibility and sectoral responsibility. The clear message from government is that the country has one last chance to avoid moving to a full lockdown.

Q: What does this mean for Micheál Martin?

A: Without question, the Taoiseach has staked his credibility in rejecting Nphet and it is a huge gamble for him and his government.