1,500 daily Covid-19 cases by November if infection rate not curbed

Covid-19 is now spreading in every county except one.

Despite rising infection rates in counties such as Cork, Galway, Roscommon and Monaghan over the past week, county-wide restrictions were ruled out and instead a national clampdown on social interactions was instigated. Then Nphet raised the possibility of a national lockdown. The Irish Examiner looks at the rapidly evolving situation and concerns.

Q. How has the Covid-19 picture changed so quickly?

A. Covid-19 is now spreading in every county except one. On Friday 14-day infection rates showed that the virus was increasing in 17 counties, with no change or falling rates in the remaining nine counties. By Saturday, that picture had changed radically, with rising rates in all counties, except Waterford, where case numbers were falling. Confirmation of almost 1,000 new cases over the weekend has fueled concerns that we could see 1,500 cases per day by November if current infection rates continue.

Q. How can Covid-19 impact on our healthcare system?

A. Hospital capacity has been a key concern since the pandemic struck in March, in particular the lack of intensive care beds, which are half the European norm. Since then ICU beds have increased and will rise to almost 300 under the HSE’s winter plan but remain far short of requirements. As of Monday, just 39 critical care beds were available across 28 acute hospitals, with 10 hospitals having no ICU beds available. Meanwhile, the health service is trying to catch-up on non-Covid care and growing waiting lists.

Q. Covid-19 numbers are nowhere near those observed in March so why is there so much concern?

A. In April, at the height of the pandemic, daily case numbers exceeded 900 at times. In recent weeks daily case numbers have risen steadily to hit 631 on Saturday night. With an increasing number of cases comes an increase in hospitalisations. As of Monday, there were 150 people in hospital with Covid-19, with 15 admissions in the previous 24 hours. Hospital data also showed that 23 people were in intensive care.

Q. Where are the pressure points in the health system?

A. This winter, the health service is facing an uphill battle to deal with Covid-19 in addition to the typical challenges, such as a winter trolley crisis. The service will have to operate at 85% capacity due to Covid-19, while also operating Covid and non-Covid services and catching up on a waiting list backlog of more than 800,000 patients. As of Monday there were 240 patients on hospital trolleys at a time when overcrowding will not mix well with Covid-19.