Covid-19: Health experts warn of '1,000 cases per day within weeks'

Acting Chief Medical Officer, Dr Ronan Glynn: 'Along with Dublin we have seen particularly concerning trends in Louth, Waterford and Donegal. It is now absolutely essential that people action public health advice and act as if they or those close to them are potentially infectious.' Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has confirmed that a further three people with Covid-19 have died.

There has now been a total of 1,788 Covid-19 related deaths in Ireland since the outbreak began.

As of midnight September 15, the HPSC has been notified of 254 new confirmed cases of Covid-19.

There has now been a total of 31,799 confirmed cases of Covid-19 here.

Of the cases notified today:

• 115 are men / 133 are women; 
• 65% are under 45 years of age; 
• 61% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case; 
• 24 cases have been identified as community transmission;
• 136 are located in Dublin;
• 20 are in Donegal; 
• 13 are in Louth;
• 12 are in Wicklow; 
• 9 are in Waterford; 
• 7 are in Carlow;
• 7 are in Cork; 
• 6 are in Galway; 
• 5 are in Kerry;
• 5 are in Wexford; 
• and the remaining 28 cases are located in Clare, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Leitrim, Limerick, Longford, Mayo, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon and Westmeath.

The HSE says it is now working to identify any contacts the patients may have had, and is seeking to provide them with information and advice to prevent further spread.

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Acting Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said the current situation in Ireland had, “Deteriorated both in Dublin and nationally over the past week."

He said: "Along with Dublin we have seen particularly concerning trends in Louth, Waterford and Donegal. 

"It is now absolutely essential that people action public health advice and act as if they or those close to them are potentially infectious.” 

Speaking at tonight's briefing, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan, said that he was "more concerned now than I have been at any point since April."

Chair of NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Dr Philip Nolan: 'We know that without a reversal of these trends, admissions can escalate rapidly to the point where our healthcare facilities will be under unsustainable pressure.' Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

He said: The reproduction number is between 1.3 – 1.7 nationally.

Case numbers appear to be growing exponentially and are likely to double every 10 to 14 days if every one of us does not immediately act to break chains of transmission of the virus. 

"If we do not interrupt transmission now, bring the R-number back to below 1, modelling shows that we could have 500 -1,000 cases per day by the October 16, 50-60% of which would be in Dublin.” 

Chief Clinical Officer at the HSE, Dr Colm Henry said: “There are currently 73 Covid-19 patients in hospital, nine of these have been admitted in the past 24 hours. 

"14 of these patients are in ICU. We are seeing a sharp increase in rate of admissions of Covid-19 patients into our acute hospitals. 

"We know that without a reversal of these trends, admissions can escalate rapidly to the point where our healthcare facilities will be under unsustainable pressure. 

"It is more essential than ever that we all adhere to the basic measures which can weaken the virus in the community.” 

 

The HSPC also noted that validation of data resulted in the denotification of two deaths, and that the updated figure of 1,788 confirmed cases reflected this.

Validation of data at the HPSC also resulted in the denotification of four previously confirmed cases. The figure current figure of 31,799 confirmed cases reflects this.