Surge in over-75s testing positive for Covid-19 'worrying' ahead of flu season

Figures released by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) show there were almost no cases reported in the over-75s up to the beginning of August, but that has changed.

Fears have been raised about a recent rise in the number of positive tests for Covid-19 among elderly and vulnerable people, who are the most likely to die from the virus.

Figures released by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) show there were almost no cases reported in the over-75s up to the beginning of August, but that has changed.

Philip Nolan, chairman of NPHET's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, revealed there were 70 cases reported in this cohort in the last fortnight, which he described as “a new phenomenon".

In recent weeks, the age profile for positive cases had become far lower, with the majority being under 45.

Prof Nolan pointed out that getting the virus normally had far more serious consequences for the elderly.

“If you are under 45 and diagnosed (with Covid-19) you have a one-in-100 chance of being hospitalised. You have a one-in-five chance if you're over 75,” he said.

Prof Nolan said they were raising this flag because, if the number of cases goes up among elderly people, the hospitalisation rates will also go up. If this happens it will put significant pressure on the health services, with hospitals already reporting a rise in the number of people on trolleys ahead of the winter flu season.

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, speaking during a COVID-19 update briefing at the Department of Health, in Dublin. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

Prof Nolan said it was also worrying that the number of people requiring hospital treatment was rising.

He said that, over a period of several weeks, there had been fewer than 10 people on any given day requiring hospital treatment. In the last few days that had risen to an average of 35 and, on Wednesday, it had increased to 48, although the number in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) remained low. There were six patients being treated in ICUs on Wednesday.

It was reported on Wednesday night that a primary school in Co Clare had to close after a number of staff members were identified as close contacts of a case of Covid-19. The school authorities told parents it plans to reopen on September 9.

Another school in Dublin also closed because of a Covid-19-related case, the second in the capital in a couple of days.

Acting chief medical officer Ronan Glynn said such outbreaks were "entirely to be expected".  

He said NPHET had previously signalled such cases would be likely as a result of schools reopening, but pleaded with parents not to let their children go to school if they had any concerns about them exhibiting symptoms of the virus.

One additional Covid-19 death has been reported, but that dates back to June. Another death has been removed from the official figures because of misreporting, which leaves the total number of fatalities from the virus to date at 1,777.

Acting chief medical officer Ronan Glynn said such outbreaks were "entirely to be expected". Picture: Julien Behal Photography

The total number of positive cases reported to date has risen to 29,114, after a further 89 were reported on Wednesday.

Of those, 40 are men and 48 are women, with 63% under the age of 45.

NPHET said 56% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks, or are close contacts of a confirmed case, while eight cases were identified as community transmission.

The breakdown showed 53 in Dublin, 15 in Limerick, and the remaining 21 cases spread between Clare, Cork, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Leitrim, Longford, Meath, Offaly, Waterford, Westmeath, Wexford, and Wicklow.

Meanwhile, an Oireachtas committee has heard that major teacher shortages lie ahead for schools scrambling to contain Covid-19 cases and children with complex needs remain left out in the cold when it comes to guidance for returning to the classroom.

Teachers unions have warned there will be serious gaps if teachers fall sick with the virus, or have to self-isolate if they have been in contact with somebody who tests positive.

As the clamour to reopen 'wet pubs' continues, Dr Glynn said NPHET wasn't fundamentally against that, but maintained there needed to be a stabilisation in the virus transmission rate in the next couple of weeks “and then we'll see where we are".

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