Maurice Brosnan: Seven questions arising from the All-Ireland football championships draw
Andrew Murnin of Armagh celebrates after scoring a late point during the All-Ireland SFC Round 1 match against Westmeath at the BOX-IT Athletic Grounds. Photo by Oliver McVeigh/Sportsfile
The second-ever draw for the Sam Maguire and Tailteann Cup group stages poses many questions for the GAA’s stakeholders. Chiefly, why the hell is the draw on a Tuesday afternoon mere days before two provincial finals?
As a consequence, only four of the 24 fixtures are locked in. The rest require an element of forecasting, crystal ball gazing and in certain places, dreaming.
Group 1 will be a cracker. Galway/Mayo, Armagh/Donegal, Derry, Westmeath. Before rushing to shower Westmeath with pity, it is worth remembering the same side had Armagh scrambling over the line at home in the 2023 group stages. They ultimately lost by a point after conceding what Dessie Dolan labeled a “sucker-punch” of a goal.
Their reward for a Division 3 league title was another unexpected body shot as Wicklow stunned them last month. That combination of a proven track record and recent sting should see them well-placed to go toe-to-toe with the Ulster runners-up in the opening round.
Kerry have a clear path to the final eight and it does not involve a single 2025 Division 1 side. The task starts with winning their 85th provincial title on Sunday. Here is the thing about such permutations, there are pros and cons. How deep down the rabbit hole do you want to go? Are an All-Ireland contender better off entering the knockout stages well-tested or not? Both cases will undoubtedly be made.
Group 2 is far from easy. But out west, they will undoubtedly contemplate the possibility that it is easier. The Connacht champions will enter a group containing Division 1 champions Derry, Division 3 champions Westmeath and one of the Division 2 finalists.
This week Kerry boss Jack O’Connor agreed that the draw taking place days before their provincial decider is a distraction. Galway and Mayo declined to do media before their fixture, but one wonders whether Pádraic Joyce and Kevin McStay would agree.
That said, some important caveats apply to that theory. Round 3 of the group stages is scheduled for 15/16 June. The preliminary quarter-final is on 22/23 June with the quarter-finals on 29/30. Only Monaghan survived that arduous route last season. Even if supporters remain reluctant to embrace a format that sees three of four teams progress, teams themselves will put immense value in securing a top spot.
Cavan and Roscommon would both relish the notion that they are considered a softer draw. In the rush to extract complicated conclusions from a limited sample size of this new structure, it shouldn’t be forgotten that only two teams arrived at the 2023 quarter-final stage undefeated and one of them went on the climb the Hogan Stand steps. Winning is a habit.
The winners of Armagh and Donegal against Tyrone in round 1. Unless Clare stun Kerry and prevail in that fixture for the first time since 1992, the Kingdom will welcome Monaghan to Killarney for their opening group game. If Dublin do as expected and overcome Louth, their reward is a matchup against Roscommon. Remember the fallout from that infamous six-minute spell and how Dublin changed tack after half-time? They should now have a chance to show similar intent from the start.
While we are hypothesizing, let’s play it out even more. Say Dublin do win yet another Leinster title and take on Roscommon at home in Croke Park. The reigning kingpins will then go to Kingspan Breffni to play Cavan. The final round is the neutral one. Last year it was confirmed that nothing prohibits a nominated ‘home’ venue from also being a neutral venue. So yes, Dublin could have played in Croke Park again. As it turns out, the match against Sligo was fixed for Kingspan Breffni.
Galway or Mayo would be expected to attract a significantly bigger crowd. What happens then?
Everyone. The blessing and curse of this system. Last season was different. Sligo qualified thanks to beating London and New York. Manager Tony McEntee was frank about their prospects in the group stages and they duly finished last. A tough draw with three Ulster teams saw Clare up against it from the start. Louth and Westmeath were the leading contenders to be eliminated in their respective groups as well.
Even if the Leinster final unfolds as predicted, Ger Brennan’s side will still fancy their chances against Meath in Group 4. Should Clare suffer defeat, they will be placed in the same group as Cork, who they beat in the Munster SFC last year.
Kildare will look to bounce back from a dreadful campaign with a tricky tie against Longford. Favourites Down were dealt a straightforward draw. They won six games on their way to promotion in Division 3. Offaly, Limerick and London won three combined. Sligo versus Wexford will be tasty opening-round clash.
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