Shona Murray: Trump is using the war in Iran to break up with Europe

US president Trump made a 20-minute address about the Iran war from the White House on Wednesday in Washington which was was devoid of detail and full of the usual hyperbole. Picture: Alex Brandon/ AP

The bar was pretty low ahead of Trump’s big speech which was expected to outline or at least hint about the coming weeks for his and Israel’s war on Iran. So, nobody was too disappointed.

“We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next few weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages (sic) where they belong,” the US president said.

And that was about the height of it. No clear plan out of the conflict. Or indication of the objectives of the war. 

Other than Iran was on the brink of obtaining nuclear weapons and Israel and the US had no choice but to intervene.

Except, no evidence has been produced to exhibit this, and Trump and Netanyahu said the same thing in July last year when they celebrated ‘obliterating’ Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

“This is a true investment in your children and your grandchildren’s future,” Trump said on Wednesday.

And in response to the 20-minute address which was devoid of detail and full of the usual hyperbole, oil prices jumped by 6% and markets slumped.

At no point did Trump speak to Iranians whose lives are on hold and at the mercy of the world’s two most aggressive military powers.

With potential genocide in Gaza, the repeat of which is ongoing in Lebanon, and nearly 200 schoolchildren dead without a word of contrition, Iranians have much to fear from America and Israel.

The hope of regime change as a silver lining from this operation is out of reach, and seems no longer a priority for the aggressors.

In fact, several analysts say the regime has strengthened and become more resilient as it holds the world’s economy hostage in the Strait of Hormuz.

US underestimated the task and lost initiative to Iran

“The reality is the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago lost the initiative to Iran,” Alex Younger, former chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), told The Economist.

“I shed no tears for Ayatollah Khamenei,” said Younger, adding that he and other military officers had often “faced the violence and brutality of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]” in their careers.

“Ironically this situation is where the IRGC gets a new lease of life, because it’s hard for the opposition to organise in the face of an air campaign,” he said, obliterating the perceived wisdom the war would deliver an opportunity for Iranians to rally together.

“It gets them [IRGC] a licence to be even more brutal than they were before,” he said.

“Pretty well 80% of Iran wants nothing to do with this theocratic ideology,” said Younger.

However, the 10% to 20% “are the ones with the guns, and that is proving decisive; they are empowered by this situation”, Younger said.

In Europe, Nato allies were bracing themselves for further “Nato-bashing” — a now commonly used term in Brussels to bat away Trump’s latest attacks on America’s most loyal countries.

Outlook for US relations with Nato allies is grim

In the last few days, the long-term outlook for Nato and US relations with allies is grim.

In an interview in The Telegraph, where Trump was asked (again) if he would consider leaving Nato, he said: “I would say it’s beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.”

In addition, US secretary of state Marco Rubio warned the US would now “re-examine” its relationship with Nato following allies’ refusal to support the US/Israel war in Iran.

“I think there’s no doubt, unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we are going to have to re-examine that relationship,” he told Fox News.

The abject humiliation of Trump’s Nato allies who have bent over backwards since the start of his second term is the norm now.

But it’s even graver than this. Trump is breaking up with Europe. And he is using the Iran war as a vehicle for it.

“President Trump has made his disappointment with Nato and other allies clear, and as the president has emphasised, ‘the United States will remember’,” a White House spokesperson told CNN.

Coalition of the willing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz

This is despite the fact that 40 countries — mainly in Europe — are cobbling together to create a coalition of the willing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, albeit when the hostilities are over.

Nato countries have pointed out (albeit belatedly) that the alliance is a defensive one, and they’re already straining every sinew to support Ukraine against Russian aggression, particularly since the Trump White House ended all American military aid.

Moreover, Nato now has to defend itself from a revitalised Russia which is now free to sell crude oil after Trump lifted the sanctions, thereby making the security situation for Europe vis-a-vis Russia even more expensive and once again impenetrable.

Trump has already abandoned them.

“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” the president also posted on his own social media outlet.

A political earthquake is approaching.