Presidential election - Gallagher’s lead seems unassailable

LAST February Fianna Fáil and the Greens felt the wrath of an angry and vengeful electorate. Both parties were decimated and their survival, not to mention their relevance, remains in question.

If the latest Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the presidential election is made real at the polls on Thursday week, then Fine Gael will, in the space of just eight months, have experienced great success followed by a failure on a par with that inflicted on their Government predecessors.

In the general election, Enda Kenny’s party won 25 extra seats and an impressive 36% of the vote. In last week’s poll their Áras candidate Gay Mitchell, at 8%, attracted less than a quarter of that support.

This, though very much on a secondary stage, represents rejection comparable with that inflicted on Brian Cowen and John Gormley’s parties in the spring.

Gay Mitchell’s failure to make any meaningful impact is certainly a factor but, as Fine Gael — and Labour — will have recognised, his unpopularity is directly linked to the Government’s unenviable task of trying to rebuild the economy by reducing more or less everyone’s standard of living. How to overcome this inevitable drift towards resentment is the greatest internal challenge facing Fine Gael and Labour.

Fine Gael would be dishonest if they did not consider their amateur blundering in candidate selection played a part in this spectacular reversal.

The most spectacular performance in the poll, even if it is only theoretical, was the 18% jump recorded by Seán Gallagher to comfortably lead the field at 39%, 12% ahead of his nearest rival Michael D Higgins.

Mr Gallagher’s optimism and independence are cited as the reasons for this tremendous swing, though his television profile must have played a part, not least in the recognition stakes. How ever this 39% rating was achieved, it is a spectacular success and if sustained means Mr Gallagher will be elected. With just nine days to polling, it will require a most spectacular and unexpected intervention to derail him.

How Martin McGuinness and his election team must envy Mr Gallagher’s ability to redefine his past. Though he describes himself as an independent candidate, it remains a fact that Mr Gallagher resigned from the Fianna Fáil national executive only in January and considered running in the general election in Louth under Brain Cowen’s leadership.

Like a partisan left behind advancing enemy lines, his fate is in his own hands, but his victory would resonate far beyond his immediate circle.

If the North’s deputy first minister could as adroitly take his IRA past off the table as Mr Gallagher has cut his umbilical cord to Fianna Fáil then Mr McGuinness would not dread challenges such as that offered by the murdered soldier’s son David Kelly last Monday. That brave challenge must have played a part in Mr McGuinness’ rating falling by 3% to 13%.

With just nine days left to voting, two things seem certain. Mr Gallagher is in pole position and our dangerous disengagement from organised politics continues apace.