Donal Lenihan: All Blacks under pressure but lack of exposure could hurt Ireland
18 Irish players being involved with the Lions this summer means many of them will be undercooked for the clash with the All Blacks. Pic: Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile
Watching New Zealand being torn apart by South Africa in their 43-10 demolition in Wellington last September - the Springboks won the second half 36-0 - only served to reinforce an opinion that had been fermenting in my mind throughout the Rugby Championship.
In addition to that record 33 point defeat was Argentina’s first ever victory over the All Blacks on home soil a few weeks earlier when they won 29-23 in Buenos Aires in front of an ecstatic home crowd.
That said, Scott Robertson’s side were still in contention for honours when the most captivating Rugby Championship of all time went down to the wire on the final weekend of action before the back to back World Cup holders South Africa retained their title.
Two years out from the next World Cup in Australia, Robertson is under pressure heading into this autumn series. The decision by the NZRU not to allow overseas based players represent the All Blacks is beginning to bite at a time when South Africa and even Argentina are beginning to build serious depth in their squad.
Without question, operating as head coach of the All Blacks is the most heavily scrutinised job in professional rugby. The fanatic New Zealand rugby follower doesn’t factor in such variables as building for the future.
The seismic nature of that defeat by South Africa, especially on home soil, is unforgivable and one that Robertson has to live with on a daily basis. Yet he can claim, with justification, that he has unearthed some quality talent over the course of that turbulent campaign.
A number of the emerging talent promoted recently are on show today. Up front, giant second row Fabian Holland is a superb line out operator while explosive new back rowers in Simon Parker, who credits Munster coach Clayton McMillan for helping him become an All Black, and Peter Lakai in his first start against the Wallabies last time out are very powerful carriers.
Exciting new scrum-half Cam Roigard looks capable of filling the substantial void left after the retirement of Aaron Smith while exciting new winger Leroy Carter, a former sevens star, has been a revelation.
Despite those recent defeats, New Zealand are still ranked number two in the world and travel with the goal of completing a Grand Slam over Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales for the first time since 2010. Today’s game will offer a big pointer on their capacity to achieve that.
It’s difficult to recall a time when so many Irish players entered the international arena with so little game time. Having 18 players involved with the Lions means a number of players come into this massively physical contest undercooked.
That’s why Andy Farrell chose to travel to Chicago 12 days in advance of this game in order to ratchet up the pressure in training while also attempting to rediscover the cohesion and unity they have always displayed as a collective.
There’s also been a change of mindset on Farrell’s return to the head role after his Lions sabbatical. On his watch, Ireland have always been next match focused but that appears to have changed with a roadmap laid out to the players prior to departing for Chicago with a joint emphasis now being placed on the 2027 World Cup.
That’s no harm. Given the age profile of this team, Farrell must start looking to the future. A little strange then that the most striking change to his regular line up is the selection of 33 year old Stuart McCluskey ahead of Bundee Aki in midfield.
To be fair that’s a form selection, as is the promotion of Jack Crowley over Sam Prendergast. The Innishannon man revamped his training regime, tweaked his place kicking routine and is currently playing out of his socks, clearly outplaying Prendergast in their recent head to head.
With former Munster player and New Zealand attack coach Jason Holland still on board before his surprise decision to step away from the coaching ticket after this tour, you can be certain he tuned into matters at Croke Park two weeks ago. He will have noted how off the pace several of Farrell’s starting side today were in what for many was their first outing of the season.
He will also be aware that Leinster and Ireland have a different approach and game plan, especially in defence, meaning that game against Munster is irrelevant to some respect, apart from the issue surrounding a lack of game time.
As a consequence, you can expect New Zealand to play with high tempo from the off in an attempt to gas the Irish players in the opening quarter when they are chasing their second wind. That lack of game time also places even more pressure on the Irish bench to deliver when called upon.
Despite the loss of two games, the big positive to emerge from the All Blacks recent campaign was the variety and proficiency of their attack, ironically under the guidance of the departing Holland.
On front foot ball, the quality of their attack, while still a work in progress, can be devastating. Central to this is a back three laced with lightning pace, something Ireland lack at present.
Restored to his favored position at full back, Will Jordan has the capacity to wreak havoc from broken play and is supported on the wings by a pair of flyers in Carter and Caleb Clarke.
While Jordie Barrett has become the glue that keeps their back line ticking, the return to arms of his midfield partner Quinn Tupaea, who starred against Australia last time out after over a year out with a horrific knee injury, means there’s no place in the squad for the Leinster-bound Rieko Ioane.
On the flip side, there’s weaknesses in this New Zealand side for Ireland to attack. Crowley’s kicking game will look to exploit a back three that, at times, looked vulnerable under the aerial bombardment unleashed by South Africa and Australia recently, leading directly to the recall of Clarke for this game.
Ireland’s set piece also looks stronger, especially at the line out where New Zealand’s back row lacks a line out specialist while their scrum was dismantled by the Springboks.
Admittedly, South Africa got the upper hand on all opponents in that key sector this summer. However, with Tadhg Furlong looking back to his best on the Lions tour alongside Andrew Porter and Dan Sheehan, you can be sure Ireland will approach every scrum with an attacking mindset. In addition, potential debutant Paddy McCarthy looked really impressive against Munster before being forced off injured.
With nine quality test matches behind them since June, New Zealand are more battle hardened and, therefore, better prepared for the ruthless physicality associated with test games of this nature.
While I expect Ireland to be competitive to the final whistle, that recent lack of exposure to games of this intensity is likely to catch up with them in the end.
