Momentum with yes side as poll shows 39%-30% lead

The yes campaign looks solidly on track to win the fiscal treaty referendum, according to the latest opinion poll.

It indicates the yes side has garnered marginally more momentum over the course of the campaign than the no side.

The poll shows 39% of respondents intend to vote yes, an increase of nine points since the corres-ponding poll in the series five weeks ago, while 30% of respondents say they will be voting no, up seven points.

The yes side will be taking nothing for granted, as 31% of respondents say they are still undecided as the campaign enters its final stages ahead of polling day on Thursday.

Were a large number of undecideds to swing against the treaty at the last moment, the referendum could be defeated.

Nonetheless, it will come as a relief to the Government that there has been no dramatic swing from the yes side to no side over the course of the campaign, as there was during the first Lisbon Treaty referendum in 2008.

The poll was conducted by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times.

When undecideds were stripped out, the yes side were on 57% and the no side were on 43%.

The poll was conducted this week among a sample of 1,000 voters across the 43 constituencies. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Fine Gael supporters are the most likely to back the treaty. Some 74% of Fine Gael supporters say they will vote yes, with just 8% planning to vote no.

Some 46% of Labour supporters say they will vote yes and 29% no, while 50% of Fianna Fáil voters say they will vote yes and 23% no.

On the no side, 66% of Sinn Féin supporters say they will oppose the treaty, with 13% saying they will vote yes.

Meanwhile, President Michael D Higgins has called on young people to vote next week.

“I think they should, whatever their opinion is,” he said. “I have changed my own vote up here from Galway so that I make sure that I will be voting. I would encourage young people to vote. Young people are not apathetic.”


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