Green Party councillor Ciaran Cuffe is set to top the Dublin European constituency by a shock landslide after Fine Gael's Frances Fitzgerald suffered a surprise slump in the polls.
An RTÉ-TG4-Red C exit poll released on Friday night said Mr Cuffe will win 23% of first preference votes, a full 9% higher than his next nearest competitor, putting him in contention to be elected on the first count.
The poll, which is detailed below, has also predicted that Ms Fitzgerald will win just 14% of first preferences despite a Government push to see her elected.
While this is likely to be enough for her to win one of the four seats on offer, the slump does put the former justice minister at potential risk if she fails to attract transfers.
Fianna Fáil's former TD Barry Andrews is also at potential risk for the same reason after winning just 12% of first preferences according to the exit poll.
He is tied in the exit poll with Independents4Change TD Clare Daly on 12%.
Among other headline projections from the exit poll are that Sinn Féin's MEP Lynn Boylan is in a battle, most likely with Ms Daly, for a seat after she was predicted to win just 10% of first preferences - placing her fifth in the four seat constituency.
Social Democrats candidates Gary Gannon, who polled better than predicted on 6%, and Labour's Alex White, on 5%, may also be able to scramble together enough support to be in the race, while Fine Gael's second candidate and former SDLP leader Mark Durkan's 5% will most likely be used to help Ms Fitzgerald over the line.
The poll states: