Ireland is fastest growing economy in Europe once again

Ireland is fastest growing economy in Europe once again

Ireland is once again Europe's fastest growing economy.

GDP growth rate is at 5% for 2017.

Consumer spending is to accelerate to 3.4% and house price inflation is up to 10% for this year.

Author of the report Conall MacCoille of Davy Research says Brexit is still putting Ireland at risk.

"That danger of a cliff-edge Brexit where WTO tariffs will be imposed is certainly still there.

"That would hit the economy in 2019 and that could lead to effectively, flat-growth or in a worse case scenario a recession," he said.

    In summary key take outs of Davy’s revised forecasts for the Irish economy include:

    · Irish GDP forecast - to grow by 5% (up from prior 3.7% forecast) in 2017 and by 3.8% in 2018.

    · That would likely make Ireland Europe’s fastest growing economy again this year.

    · Davy’s base case on Brexit is that a transitional Brexit deal will be agreed to avoid the worst case scenario of a hard Brexit and WTO tariffs - though clearly that risk remains, with very real consequences for agri, for SMEs and indigenous manufacturers, most likely in 2019.

    · They see consumer spending accelerating to 3.4% growth in 2017 (up from prior 3.0% forecast).

    · House price inflation for FY 2017 of 10% (up from Davy’s prior 8% view at the start of the year).

    · Employment to expand by 2.8% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, sufficient to push the unemployment rate to 5.3% on average next year..

    · Underlying investment should remain robust, up 8.4% in 2017.

    · Government expenditure predicated to rise by 2.6% in real terms in 2017.

    · Export growth to pick up from 2.4% in 2016 to 4.5% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018.

More in this Section

Brexit gloom laid bare in ‘terrible’ UK manufacturing reportBrexit gloom laid bare in ‘terrible’ UK manufacturing report

Fears for hundreds of jobs at multinational firm in ClareFears for hundreds of jobs at multinational firm in Clare

CSO figures show how many Irish firms suffered technology related security incidents last yearCSO figures show how many Irish firms suffered technology related security incidents last year

Revolut growth highlights 'incredible' growth of online banks in EuropeRevolut growth highlights 'incredible' growth of online banks in Europe


Lifestyle

Put provenance first this season and make 'Made in Munster' the label to be seen in. With outstanding craftmanship and commitment to quality, these homegrown designers are making Munster-made fashion wish list worthy around the world. Shopping local has never looked so good. Carolyn Moore reports.Made in Munster: Shopping local has never looked this good.

Karen Cunneen-Bilbow Owner, Fabricate IrelandMade in Munster: ‘I turned my hobby into a business’

An invitation is extended to all to pay a visit to Bride View Cottage, writes Charlie WilkinsSeasonal cheer will spread early in Co Cork as an invitation is extended to all to visit Bride View Cottage

After a week of Fortnite Chapter 2, we think it’s fair to say Epic lived up to their name with the game’s ‘re-launch’.GameTech: Happy after a week of Fortnite Chapter 2

More From The Irish Examiner