Brexit already making London's economy 'wobble', says think tank

Brexit is already causing a "wobble" in London's economy, according to new analysis from an independent think tank.

Research by the Centre for London suggests the UK's looming withdrawal from the EU may be having an impact on reducing numbers of Europeans coming to the capital to work, a slowdown in job creation, declining business confidence and decelerating house price growth.

The think tank found that registrations for new national insurance numbers by foreign workers have fallen by 15% in the capital over the last year, with three-quarters of the fall accounted for by a drop in EU migration.

And its research found that job growth was slowing for the first time since 2015 to lag behind the rate in the rest of the UK.

Year-on-year house price growth was under 3% for the three months to April 2017, the lowest level in London since 2012, while increases in private rental values dropped below 2% to their lowest rate since 2010.

The research, released to coincide with the first edition of the Centre's new London Intelligence publication, noted that the capital's unemployment rate was at an historic low of 5.5% and that there had been a reduction in the number of young people not in education, employment or training.

Centre for London director Ben Rogers said: "London has shown remarkable resilience in the years following the recession. But its growth has not been painless. Levels of inequality have soared. Congestion, pollution and the housing shortage have all worsened.

"While no-one knows how Brexit will play out, this new analysis suggests that London's economy is beginning to wobble. It also highlights the need to tackle London's critical challenges to ensure it is in the best possible position to deal with Brexit.

"Through The London Intelligence, Centre for London will continue to deepen our understanding of how London is changing in real-time, and identify whether these are bumps in the road or changes in direction for London."


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