Bank warns of prolonged Brexit uncertainty as interest rates held

Bank warns of prolonged Brexit uncertainty as interest rates held

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 0.75%, and signalled prolonging Brexit uncertainty could keep borrowing costs lower for longer.

Members of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged, in the last such meeting before the UK is due to leave the EU on October 31.

In minutes of the decision, the Bank said Britain is expected to avoid a technical recession, but cautioned growth in the third quarter is likely to be weaker than it previously forecast, at 0.2%.

This follows a contraction of 0.2% in the April to June quarter.

Political events could lead to a further period of entrenched uncertainty

The Bank said Brexit uncertainty has become more “entrenched” and is hampering growth, cautioning that mounting political chaos and the prospect of a potential snap election will keep the economy under pressure.

But it will also keep inflation in check, easing the pressure on the Bank to increase rates and could leave the door open to a cut if the Government remains unable to resolve Brexit.

It said: “Political events could lead to a further period of entrenched uncertainty about the nature of and the transition to the UK’s eventual future trading relationship with the EU.

“The longer those uncertainties persisted, particularly in an environment of weaker global growth, the more likely it was that demand growth would remain below potential, increasing excess supply.”

It reiterated that if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, growth will slow, the pound will soar and inflation will rise.

But rates could go in “either direction” in a no-deal Brexit, as it balances rising inflation caused by the pound with falling growth.

The Bank also confirmed that in the event of a smooth Brexit, “gradual and limited” rate hikes will likely be needed to keep inflation in check.

Brexit uncertainty has been weighing on business investment in particular, but it said the recent weakness in growth was due in part to a smaller boost than expected from car production, after some manufacturers had shut down over the summer as well as in April.

Reports suggest Bank governor Mark Carney may be asked to extend his term if Brexit is delayed again (Chris J Ratcliffe/PA)
Reports suggest Bank governor Mark Carney may be asked to extend his term if Brexit is delayed again (Chris J Ratcliffe/PA)

“The committee judged that underlying growth had slowed, but remained slightly positive,” the Bank said.

Unemployment growth in the UK has also weakened, while official figures out separately on Thursday showed retail sales edging just 0.2% higher in August, down from 0.4% growth in July.

The rates decision comes after America reduced rates for the second time this year late on Wednesday amid the trade war between the US and China, as well as slowing global growth.

It also comes as reports suggest Bank governor Mark Carney could be asked to extend his term once more in the event of Brexit being delayed.

The Treasury Select Committee has now written to Chancellor Sajid Javid asking for an update on the timetable for naming a successor to Mr Carney, who is due to step down on January 31, given that it had previously said it would make the appointment in the autumn.

A Treasury spokesman said on Wednesday the process remains “on track and we will make an appointment in due course”.

- Press Association

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