Bank of England official warns 10,000 jobs will be lost on day one of Brexit

A Bank of England official said 10,000 financial services jobs could go on the first day of Brexit and that an independent report predicting a loss of 75,000 positions was "plausible".

Sam Woods, head of the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), said the 75,000 number was not produced by the Bank of England, but came from a report by consultants Oliver Wyman in 2016, which gave a credible prediction of the impact of Brexit on financial services.

Mr Woods, who has seen the Brexit contingency plans of a range of financial services companies and banks, said he expects around 10,000 positions to be lost on day one of Britain’s break from the European Union, adding that he would be "surprised" if the number is higher than that.

Speaking to the House of Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee, he said: "The 65,000 to 75,000 is not a Bank of England number its an Oliver Wyman number.

"And how Oliver Wyman came up with that number is they looked at this scenario, which they considered the most extreme scenario, where the UK defaults to WTO status and what portion of revenues of the financial services sector might fall away.

"They thought crudely that 40% to 50% of the EU 27 revenues, which are £40 billion of £200 billion might fall away.

"That got them to £20 billion revenue number if you like, a 10% reduction in revenues.

"They then associated with that a 30,000 to 35,000 reduction in financial services jobs here in the UK, added to that the ecosystem effect and ancillary jobs and things like that, which hence they get to 65,000 to 75,000.

"Now that’s not a Bank of England number and we haven’t specifically endorsed that report. However, I would say that in terms of a long-term possibility among one of many scenarios, I regard that within the plausible range of scenarios.

Focusing on the immediate impact of Brexit, he added: "The short term effect - what we are learning from the contingency plans which have just come in from firms - in that context, looking across all the plans we have had from banks and insurance companies..., you could reasonably think of the day one movement of perhaps around 10,000.

"I would be surprised if it ends up being more than that for banks and insurance companies.

"To put that in context, that is less than 1% of financial services jobs. It is around 2% of UK bank and insurance jobs, or 2% to 3% of The City if you choose a different denominator.

"It is clearly a much lower number, it is not an insignificant number, but it is much lower."


Related Articles

European Parliament president may visit Ireland to 'show support' on border issue

Taoiseach references IRA border bombing to emphasise journey to peace

Senior Tories warn Theresa May that Irish backstop is 'a trap being set by the EU'

British Irish Chamber of Commerce warns of 'severely disrupted supply chains' with no-deal Brexit

More in this Section

US confirms talks on trade deal with Britain to begin immediately after Brexit

Monitor shows Irish women more likely to start a business than most of their EU counterparts

Google to charge device makers a fee for access to key Android apps in the EU

Index shows weak growth in consumer spending prior to Budget


Breaking Stories

On World Menopause Day: 5 myths you really need to stop believing

Photography awards capture life at its wildest

This is how to stay healthy as a new parent – according to The Body Coach

A question of taste: Sinead Dunphy

More From The Irish Examiner