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Excelebration makes plenty of appeal at evens without Frankel
By Tommy Lyons
Even if he’s an unbackable price for the vast majority of punters, Frankel’s presence in the opening Queen Anne Stakes (2.30) at Royal Ascot provides a fitting start to the flat racing’s finest week.
The world’s highest-rated thoroughbred bids to extend his unbeaten sequence to 11 and unless some of his lesser known rivals can summon something stratospheric, a victorious saunter up Ascot’s straight mile should ensue.For much of his Classic campaign in 2011, Henry Cecil’s horse was stalked, at a respectful distance, by Excelebration. Then with Marco Botti but in the care of Aidan O’Brien, notions of a vast improvement for a change of address were cordially cut short when the latter took on Frankel for the fourth time, in this season’s Lockinge at Newbury.
Also run over a straight mile, Frankel conceded race fitness to his old adversary but the son of Galileo once again stamped his authority on proceedings, extending his level of superiority over Ballydoyle’s winter acquisition.
It was clinical and it was easy but, accepting that, Excelebration remains the one most likely to chase the favourite home today. A top-class miler in his own right, he would be a favourite for this race in most other years. While he cannot conceivably reverse form with Frankel, he holds standout claims to run the favourite closest.
The Exceed And Excel colt cantered clear to win the German 2000 Guineas on soft ground and won the Prix du Moulin on ground described as very soft.
The runners won’t have to worry about it coming up as testing as that this afternoon but on the opening day of the meeting, when the state of the ground is still unclear, Excelebration’s indifference to the underfoot conditions puts his supporters’ minds at ease.
Strong Suit has won at this meeting for the past two seasons (2010 Coventry Stakes and 2011 Jersey Stakes) but cut in the ground won’t play to his strengths and neither will a strongly run mile, over which he is unproven.
Worthadd deserves mention for the fact that he finished runner-up to Canford Cliffs in last season’s Lockinge. On a literal reading of that form he should be challenging for a place this afternoon but it’s fair to say that he got the run of the race that day, leading at a modest pace and quickening from the front before being outclassed by the winner.
With Bullet Train, Windsor Palace and even Helmet in the race, there will be no soft lead this time and Worthadd needs to step up to threaten those at the head of the market.
Former Australian performer Helmet, now with Mahmood Al Zarooni, is the unknown quantity. He has three Group 1 victories to his name but they all came Down Under and it’s hard to believe he’s worthy of a rating of 119.
I can’t contemplate defeat for Frankel and so the even money on offer about Excelebration in the ‘without the favourite’ market stands out as the bet of the day. While he may not have closed the gap on Frankel this season, he certainly has not gone backwards and today’s race should bring out the best in him. That, I’m confident, should be enough to fend off his remaining rivals.
In the St James’s Palace Stakes (3.45), Excelebration’s trainer would appear to have more obvious outright claims with Irish 2000 Guineas winner Power. Until otherwise educated, however, I will have some reservations about the form of that race and prefer to look elsewhere.
The Nile, one of three runners for John Gosden, is a horse I believe can be competitive at this level, if not today, certainly at some later stage of his career.
He was beaten in a Listed race at Newmarket last time and while that form leaves him with plenty to find with many of these, he is an imposing, long-striding horse with buckets of potential. He would relish a furious gallop from which to come off but there isn’t a guaranteed pacemaker in the race and connections may choose to ride him positively, which may work. For value hunters, he makes each-way appeal at 20-1.