We need leaders for the future, not from the dark and discredited past
Just as Fianna Fáil hits its lowest ever rating of 17% — the same level as in another Red C poll two weeks ago — Sinn Féin hits its highest ever approval rating south of the border, with an anticipated 15% share of the vote. Could Sinn Féin be about to do to Fianna Fáil in the south what it did to the SDLP in the north?
Just as many people seem to have forgotten that Sinn Fein’s main role in life once was to act as apologist for the sick terrorist activities of the IRA — an organisation that engaged in murderous acts that could not be justified by any cause or war — they also forget that the SDLP was once the dominant force in northern republican politics. It believed in fighting for the right things with words, not bombs or bullets, of convincing its opponents through reason, not intimidation.
Its leader John Hume was so determined to establish peace in the six counties that he engaged with Sinn Féin and facilitated its introduction to normal political discourse. He dealt with Gerry Adams because he knew that he was the most important figure in the IRA too. He understood the political pragmatism of Adams pretending that he was not a senior IRA man. He dealt with a man active in the deaths of many in the hope of stopping more killing. As he negotiated and drew Sinn Féin into the mainstream political process he assisted its electoral growth. By the time he had finished he had secured the peace but also the advancement of Sinn Féin to the position where it had supplanted the SDLP as the party of choice for most nationalists.
Whereas Seamus Mallon — another great figure in Irish political history — was the first nationalist deputy first minister that position is now Martin McGuinness’s and if his eventual successor is not from Sinn Féin it may be because Sinn Féin has secured the role of First Minister for itself.
Of course others helped in the normalisation of the perception Sinn Féin, none more so than Fianna Fáil under Bertie Ahern who also dealt with Sinn Fein/IRA for the sake of national peace. For all of his flaws Ahern had a keen political sense of how the electorate might perceive Sinn Féin as it developed and how that might capture some of Fianna Fail’s traditional republican vote. While helping Sinn Féin the six counties he worked hard to curtail its potential south of the border, most viciously in his own constituency where immense effort went into ensuring Mary Lou McDonald would not win a seat in the last general election. We were reminded of Ahern’s willingness to confront Sinn Féin only this week when, by fluke, we were reminded of the circumstances of the Northern Bank robbery in Belfast in December 2004. The controversy as to what Adams, McGuinness and others knew of this IRA raid — which netted over €30 million — resurfaced when Wikileaks outlined what the US embassy in Dublin had been told about the government’s view of those events.
Ahern made a central charge against Adams and McGuinness. He had “rock solid evidence” that both were members of the IRA military command. Therefore the assumption was that they must have known in advance of the plans for the robbery. They deny this, of course.
Membership of the IRA remains a criminal offence which means neither of those individuals was going to admit to ongoing involvement, especially at the most senior level, back then. McGuinness has admitted to prior membership but Adams continues to insist he was never even a member. Many who dealt with him believe that he was commander of the Belfast brigade during the 1970s, when it carried out indiscriminate bombings and “disappeared” Catholics who the IRA suspected of being British informers. The bodies are being discovered to this day. Adams regrets that these things every happened but does not take personal responsibility.
Nobody involved in trying to establish peace ever believed that Adams and McGuinness were without leadership roles in the IRA. It was the basis that made negotiations worthwhile. Sinn Féin and IRA were two sides of the same coin, as was stated memorably once. On occasion during fraught negotiations McGuinness said he would have to contact the IRA to see what it thought. Brian Cowen, then Minister for Foreign Affairs and with the bluntness that many thought he might bring to the role of Taoiseach, suggested that he save time by going to look in the mirror in the bathroom and asking the question then.
Nobody in the North, bar the IRA, would have dared or been able to carry out a crime like the Northern Bank raid. It raised €30 million or so and was held by some as a means of funding redundancy payments to those IRA men who were being decommissioned along with their weapons. Proving to the standards of a court of law that Adams and McGuinness knew what was happening would be almost impossible. In the absence of convictions arising from the robbery Sinn Féin can fall back not just on denials but claims of a smear campaign and “dirty tricks”. Many people will believe them. Many more will not. They may be persuaded by what the Wikileaks documents allege about the IRA laundering its money from robberies, racketeering and other forms of criminality by diversifying into legitimate businesses.
Sinn Féin has taken a major gamble now by moving its Adams to a position south of the border. It addresses one major problem experienced by Sinn Féin in the 2007 general election when it actually dropped a seat to four despite having expectations of significant gains. Being led in debates and interviews by someone who didn’t stand for election himself was not a good tactical move.
But even if that has been addressed by his selection to contest that does not deal with many of the other Adams handicaps. While he is most likely to win a seat in Louth, especially as the party already has a seat there courtesy of Arthur Morgan, who is now loyally retiring to the family business, he may remain unattractive to the national audience.
It should not be forgotten that Adams performed disastrously in the televised debate before the last election. One part of his problem was his stuttering and halting use of the autocue in his speech — apparently because he didn’t have the right glasses — and it is inconceivable that he would deliver as badly again. Adams was also trounced in debate by PD leader and outgoing Tánaiste Michael McDowell. In what may have been his last significant act as a politician McDowell wounded Adams.
Sinn Féin may hope that Adams can prosper now that the public is so disillusioned with the establishment parties. But people are looking for leaders for the future rather than figures from the past, especially the discredited past. Whatever praise Adams deserves for stopping the killing cannot change that for years he endorsed it. And when it comes to economics people are looking for convincing and well thought out plans that don’t just involve robbing those deemed to be wealthy. Whatever about the SDLP failing to stave off the rise of Sinn Féin you can expect Fianna Fáil to react aggressively now.
The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.
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