Will there be an election before 2010? It’s an even money bet ...

Politicians deeply abhor and detest general elections. All recoil at the personal horror of their own uncertainty. TDs are always in a constant state of denial about the prospects of a pending contest. The profound level of private insecurity has to be felt to be believed.

WHAT’S the betting on a general election before the year end? Bookies’ odds compilers convert potential outcomes into mathematical probabilities. For sports events, one relies mainly on form and statistics. While the last three Dáils ran their full five years, previously three years was the average Dáil life over the preceding two decades. The primary axis rotates around the Dáil arithmetic.

This Government comprised 78 Fianna Fáil TDs, 6 Greens, 2 PDs plus the committed support of 3 Independents — giving it a comfortable majority of six. The resignation of MEP, Pat “The Cope” Gallagher, means there are 165 TDs. Subtracting the Ceann Comhairle leaves 82 Government deputies. Any further slippage from the FF parliamentary party or the Greens could capsize the Government. I recall David Trimble’s travails when leading the UUP. He regularly faced formal internal votes. It only took one heave to be successful and he was finished.