There’s an enormous hole in the electoral market. Who will fill it?

By Ivan Yates

Thursday, October 27, 2011

IF opinion polls are even partially correct, there’ll be serious head scratching amongst political insiders. The phenomenal rise and rise of Sean Gallagher has confounded pundits and political parties. At the close of nominations, a month ago, his ratings tallied at 9% to 12% - fifth place. Nothing emerged that adds to his CV.

His visibility originates from TV reality show Dragons Den, founder of Smart Homes and backroom work for Fianna Fáil. He has not advocated unique creativity for Office of President or adopted any radical policies. So, who are the 40% supporters and why support him?

His ostensible point of difference, other than marginal youth, is that he resonates most with FF. As more background material on his links with the party appear, the greater his popularity rises. His pro-enterprise rhetoric and self-help philosophy echoes sentiments of the soldiers of destiny. On moral and ethical questions, he prevaricates in the middle ground of pragmatism. If it looks, walks, talks and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. Despite this branding by opponents and media, Gallagher has accidentally or deliberately stumbled upon consolidating the FF family.

Current consensus was that the touch of FF was toxic. The extent of blame and anger associated with Bertie Ahern/Brian Cowen governments was deemed to be lethal in the last general election. Independent FF TDs survived while the party lost 57 seats. This backdrop resulted in many traditional FF workers and supporters abandoning mainstream membership. Disaffected former activists became political orphans, no longer at home in a discredited FF, but still aligned to historic ideals and identity of Dev’s party. Their DNA and gene pool background remained intact.

Voters (around 40% of the electorate) who elected Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach in 1997, 2002 and 2007 have congealed again, this time around Sean Gallagher. Prospect of such an early redemption has prompted wholesale denial amongst FF’s enemies. They recoil in shock at thoughts of election to the Áras of a "Fianna Fáil builder ". They cannot accept voters could be so gullible, so quickly. These same people decry Michael Lowry topping the poll in Tipperary North. Significant tranches of voters don’t care if a candidate had breaches of company law, drew down personal corporate loans or received state business grants.

This must send most chilling messages to Fine Gael and Labour backbenchers. Many represent all seats in their constituency, providing no leeway to avoid future carnage and decimation. The core FG national vote reached its previous lowest level in 1990 with Austin Currie’s 17%. Gay Mitchell may obtain one in four of the party vote procured last February — at 9%. Enda Kenny requested "lending" votes then, he was facilitated. Terms and conditions were strictly short-term. Voter volatility has never been more acute in our electoral history. Over past several months, the Cabinet resembled one massive public relations machine. Heralding restoration of economic stability and controlled public finances has been the main message at home and abroad.

The only unpopular decision to date was to seize 0.6% of pension fund assets. Amid lectures about austerity, they have yet to add to Brian Lenihan’s budget pain for 2011. By declining to frontload fiscal rectitude, they have still to determine where the axe will fall on €10bn of adjustments. In November, €2.1bn of expenditure cuts await. Given circa 64% in every euro comprises social welfare, health and education spending, unpopular tough decisions will engender hostility. Severe restrictions on rent allowances, free household schemes, home help packages, pupil-teacher ratios, school entry ages, hospital bed capacity, and medical card eligibility — will provoke sustained resentment. Roscommon’s A&E rationalisation will seem like a tea party.

The public capital programme will be severely curtailed. Transport projects (road and rail) will be shelved. The National Children’s Hospital will have to be deferred. Needs of the construction sector and its former employees will have to wait. Taxation will have to be increased by €1.5bn. The tax base will have to be widened to yield significant household related revenue. Pay packets must be hit by reducing values of tax credits and allowances, even if income tax rates remain unaltered. Stealth charges on private beds in public hospitals, public inspection fees, fares in the CIE group are likely to be ratcheted up. A significant exodus of several thousands of retiring public servants will slow down state bureaucracy, yielding customer dissatisfaction. Get the picture?

While the Government dishes out harsh medicine over three years, their poll ratings will inevitably slide. It would not be unrealistic for FG to slip from 36% to 20% and Labour to revert to 10%. As recession fatigue encounters increased debt servicing costs, the blame game will shift to Kenny and Gilmore. Short-term credit from Euro leaders and international analysts for full debt repayment will turn to medium-term animosity at home. Sinn Féin can increase their base support by 50% to 15%. The middle-income blue and white collar voters are hardly likely to engage in masochism. This cul-de-sac for the left and growing disaffection with government parties creates a huge hole in the electoral market. Who will fill it?

A new party is a valid possibility of opportunity. The fate of ultimate oblivion for the Progressive Democrats and Greens represents a stark warning to potential new entrants. Challenges of recruiting a nationwide membership and obtaining voluntary untainted finance are enormous. . However, the lesson of this presidential campaign may be after 90 years of civil war traditions, a new departure beckons. The American duopoly of Republicans and Democrats, as well as the British dominance of Labour and Conservative may be more secure than our foundation parties. A block of up to 40% of the electorate may seek a new home in 2014. The political orphans were created by the implosion of FF. Then again, the age-old love affair with Fianna Fáil may reignite.

PS: I can’t resist the desire to canvas a Yes vote on the 30th amendment to the Constitution today. Conflicting rights compete between the need to protect individuals and the public good through rights to investigate maladministration, failures of public policy and various disasters. Throughout the economic and financial collapse, key protagonists have evaded investigation and interrogation. The refusal to attend hearings is an affront to democracy. The courts have unwittingly or otherwise protected wealthy individuals from the same treatment as their victims. Retaining the status quo by voting "no" is a recipe for more costly tribunals. Eight Attorney Generals, former judges and the Bar Council advocate a "no" vote. This is primarily aimed at preserving the courts and legal processes as focal point of public enquiries, involving the judiciary. "Independence" is a cornerstone of their argument. The flipside of this coin is lack of accountability. Prospects of criminal trials of delinquent bankers and regulators are remote.

We should choose to modernise our parliament by giving new powers of investigation. On pay and powers, special pleading deserves short shrift.

This appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Thursday, October 27, 2011